Geopolitical··Severity 6
Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief Drapaty is on Russia’s wanted list
Earlier, the Russian Investigative Committee brought charges against Drapaty for staging more than 70 shelling attacks killing or wounding 154 people
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
44%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
Checking access status…