Geopolitical··Severity 6
UN Security Council to vote on draft resolution demanding ceasefire in Gaza
The draft document, obtained by TASS, contains four provisions
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
45%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: A) Continued escalation of violence reported by international media outlets; B) Increased calls for intervention from UN member states; C) Israeli government announces a significant increase in military presence on the border with Gaza.
B
40%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: A) Continued escalation of violence reported by international media outlets; B) Increased calls for intervention from UN member states; C) Israeli government announces a significant increase in military presence on the border with Gaza.
C
15%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: A) Continued escalation of violence reported by international media outlets; B) Increased calls for intervention from UN member states; C) Israeli government announces a significant increase in military presence on the border with Gaza.
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