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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Syria’s US$216 billion rebuild offers a Hormuz alternative

For years, Syria was a wound the world watched fester: a country carved up by war, sanctioned into isolation and reduced to a byword for state collapse. Its economy needs US$216 billion to rebuild, according to World Bank estimates. This month, for the first time since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, it began to look like it might actually get there. On July 8, the government of Ahmed al-Sharaa – a former jihadi commander turned president – established a supreme constitutional...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

59%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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