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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Middle East war rekindles as US and Iran resume strike exchange

The United States and Iran continued to trade blows for a sixth day on July 16, as the foes battled over the vital Strait of Hormuz, despite a call from mediator Pakistan to resume talks. The renewed fighting and US blockade of Iranian ports came a month after a preliminary deal was signed that aimed to end the conflict. Since last week, the renewed US attacks have killed at least 30 people in Iran, according to its government.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

73%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

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