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Military··Severity 9

FACTBOX: What we know about foiled attack on military airfield in Rostov-on-Don

The FSB identified a Russian citizen in the Rostov Region sought by Ukraine's military intelligence to recruit to carry out a sabotage and terrorist attack in exchange for a monetary reward after blowing up the Rostov-Central military airfield

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: TASS English

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