Geopolitical··Severity 9
US strikes around Tehran for first time in most recent wave of attacks, says Iranian state media
The US says it fired a missile into a Curaçao-flagged oil tanker's funnel after claiming the ship, which was sailing toward Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf, "ignored multiple warnings".
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
79%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Euronews
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