Geopolitical··Severity 6
Senegal u-turns to back ex-president Sall to lead UN
In tonight's edition, a deadly ambush in northern Mali leaves at least 50 soldiers dead. Also, Nigeria is facing a new challenge in its own war against jihadists as foreign fighters are joining insurgent groups. And Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye is now backing former president Macky Sall's bid for UN Secretary-General.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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