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Geopolitical··Severity 6

America declares international law for thee but not for me

In Orwellian totalitarianism, two plus two can equal five. But with American hegemony, things can be A and not A at the same time. Earlier this month, Washington declared war on the International Criminal Court (ICC), whose very existence, it claims, poses an “intolerable” challenge to America’s sovereignty. But, citing an international maritime law, it also led a coalition of 14 mainly Western countries in issuing a joint statement in support of a 10-year-old South China Sea arbitration ruling...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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