Geopolitical··Severity 8
Middle East live: Trump says Board of Peace reaches Hamas disarmament deal
US President Donald Trump has said that his ‘Board of Peace’ has reached an agreement to disarm Palestinian group Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza. Meanwhile, mediator Pakistan insists that negotiations between Iran and the United States are ongoing, even as Washington carried out a 'heavy wave of strikes' on its foe in retaliation for fresh attacks targeting Jordan. Follow our liveblog for all the latest updates.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
56%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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