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geopolitical··severity 9

Израильские военные самолеты нанесли удар по югу Сирии — ЦАХАЛ

Во вторник вечером израильские военные заявили, что зафиксировали запуск двух снарядов с территории Сирии.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% On June 8th, 2025, in response to the Israeli strike on Syria's south, Hezbollah launches a ballistic missile from Lebanon towards Tel Aviv. Within 48 hours, Israel responds with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launch sites in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict escalates into a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, drawing in Iran and its proxies. 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel. 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian-Israeli border. 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The Israeli strike on Syria's south triggers a routine response from Iran, with Tehran condemning the attack and vowing to protect its allies in Damascus. However, Hezbollah chooses not to retaliate, opting instead for diploma

Индикаторы подтверждения: **, 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel., 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian, Israeli border., 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties.
B

Status Quo

38%

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% On June 8th, 2025, in response to the Israeli strike on Syria's south, Hezbollah launches a ballistic missile from Lebanon towards Tel Aviv. Within 48 hours, Israel responds with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launch sites in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict escalates into a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, drawing in Iran and its proxies. 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel. 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian-Israeli border. 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The Israeli strike on Syria's south triggers a routine response from Iran, with Tehran condemning the attack and vowing to protect its allies in Damascus. However, Hezbollah chooses not to retaliate, opting instead for diploma

Индикаторы подтверждения: **, 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel., 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian, Israeli border., 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties.
C

De-escalation

13%

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% On June 8th, 2025, in response to the Israeli strike on Syria's south, Hezbollah launches a ballistic missile from Lebanon towards Tel Aviv. Within 48 hours, Israel responds with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launch sites in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict escalates into a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, drawing in Iran and its proxies. 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel. 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian-Israeli border. 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The Israeli strike on Syria's south triggers a routine response from Iran, with Tehran condemning the attack and vowing to protect its allies in Damascus. However, Hezbollah chooses not to retaliate, opting instead for diploma

Индикаторы подтверждения: **, 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel., 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian, Israeli border., 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties.

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