Israeli warplanes deliver strike on Syria’s south — IDF

On Tuesday evening, the Israeli military said they had detected the launch of two projectiles from the territory of Syria A: Escalation (model probability 86%, not a guarantee) — Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% On June 8th, 2025, in response to the Israeli strike on Syria's south, Hezbollah launches a ballistic missile from Lebanon towards Tel Aviv. Within 48 hours, Israel responds with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launch sites in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict escalates into a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, drawing in Iran and its proxies. 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel. 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian-Israeli border. 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The Israeli strike on Syria's south triggers a routine response from Iran, with Tehran condemning the attack and vowing to protect its allies in Damascus. However, Hezbollah chooses not to retaliate, opting instead for diploma B: Status Quo (model probability 10%, not a guarantee) — Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% On June 8th, 2025, in response to the Israeli strike on Syria's south, Hezbollah launches a ballistic missile from Lebanon towards Tel Aviv. Within 48 hours, Israel responds with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launch sites in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict escalates into a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, drawing in Iran and its proxies. 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel. 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian-Israeli border. 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The Israeli strike on Syria's south triggers a routine response from Iran, with Tehran condemning the attack and vowing to protect its allies in Damascus. However, Hezbollah chooses not to retaliate, opting instead for diploma C: De-escalation (model probability 4%, not a guarantee) — Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% On June 8th, 2025, in response to the Israeli strike on Syria's south, Hezbollah launches a ballistic missile from Lebanon towards Tel Aviv. Within 48 hours, Israel responds with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah's rocket launch sites in Lebanon and Syria. The conflict escalates into a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, drawing in Iran and its proxies. 1. Hezbollah announces plans to retaliate against Israel. 2. Iranian military units mobilize along the Syrian-Israeli border. 3. A ceasefire is rejected by both parties. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The Israeli strike on Syria's south triggers a routine response from Iran, with Tehran condemning the attack and vowing to protect its allies in Damascus. However, Hezbollah chooses not to retaliate, opting instead for diploma

Israeli warplanes deliver strike on Syria’s south — IDF

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation