С 2014 года в результате украинских атак в ДНР и ЛНР погибло более 320 детей, ранено почти 1250 детей.

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure in DPR/LPR escalate into direct military action against Ukrainian positions with increased heavy weaponry deployment. This triggers international condemnation, leading to sanctions and a potential escalation of Western support for Ukraine. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Ukrainian military operations near DPR/LPR borders, followed by confirmed strikes on key infrastructure within the regions. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The international community continues to engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and facilitate dialogue between Ukraine and Russia. However, the humanitarian crisis in DPR/LPR intensifies, leading to increased pressure on both sides to find a solution. * Confirmation i

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure in DPR/LPR escalate into direct military action against Ukrainian positions with increased heavy weaponry deployment. This triggers international condemnation, leading to sanctions and a potential escalation of Western support for Ukraine. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Ukrainian military operations near DPR/LPR borders, followed by confirmed strikes on key infrastructure within the regions. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The international community continues to engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and facilitate dialogue between Ukraine and Russia. However, the humanitarian crisis in DPR/LPR intensifies, leading to increased pressure on both sides to find a solution. * Confirmation i

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Ukrainian attacks on civilian infrastructure in DPR/LPR escalate into direct military action against Ukrainian positions with increased heavy weaponry deployment. This triggers international condemnation, leading to sanctions and a potential escalation of Western support for Ukraine. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Ukrainian military operations near DPR/LPR borders, followed by confirmed strikes on key infrastructure within the regions. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: The international community continues to engage in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and facilitate dialogue between Ukraine and Russia. However, the humanitarian crisis in DPR/LPR intensifies, leading to increased pressure on both sides to find a solution. * Confirmation i