Geopolitical··Severity 6
Ukrainian military gassed civilians in Sudzha district, set fire to their homes — witness
Yelena Drugova explained that these events unfolded after the Russian army entered the settlement
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
50%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Satellite imagery showing increased Russian military presence near the border region and a NATO statement regarding the incident and potential actions.
B
36%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Satellite imagery showing increased Russian military presence near the border region and a NATO statement regarding the incident and potential actions.
C
14%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Satellite imagery showing increased Russian military presence near the border region and a NATO statement regarding the incident and potential actions.
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