Geopolitical··Severity 8
A week of strikes shatters hope of a lasting US-Iran peace deal
Hopes of a lasting peace deal between Iran and the US are fading fast following a week that has seen consistent exchange of fire between the two sides. The US resumed its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz firing at a ship that attempted to breach it. For its part, Iran retaliated by launching strikes on US allies including Jordan, where projectiles believed to be of Iranian origin were spotted.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
59%Эскалация
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Primary source: France24
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