Geopolitical··Severity 6
New anti-Russian sanctions ready, need to be approved by Congress, Trump — envoy
US Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg emphasized that the restrictions are aimed primarily at Russian oil exports
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
58%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: US Senate passes the new sanctions bill with bipartisan support, followed by President Biden signing the legislation into law. Russia announces a significant reduction in natural gas exports to Europe within 24 hours.
B
31%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: US Senate passes the new sanctions bill with bipartisan support, followed by President Biden signing the legislation into law. Russia announces a significant reduction in natural gas exports to Europe within 24 hours.
C
11%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: US Senate passes the new sanctions bill with bipartisan support, followed by President Biden signing the legislation into law. Russia announces a significant reduction in natural gas exports to Europe within 24 hours.
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