← Каталог сценариев
geopolitical··severity 6

Новые антироссийские санкции готовы, их должен одобрить Конгресс, Трамп — посол

Спецпредставитель США по Украине Кит Келлог подчеркнул, что ограничения направлены, прежде всего, на экспорт российской нефти.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US Congress approves new anti-Russian sanctions on oil exports within 14 days. Russia retaliates by cutting off natural gas supply to Europe, triggering a market panic and sharp decline in global energy prices. This leads to increased political pressure from several nations for the U.S. to scale back its stance. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The new anti-Russian sanctions bill remains stalled in Congress due to political gridlock and differing opinions on the scope of restrictions. The U.S. continues to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine while mainta

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** US Senate passes the new sanctions bill with bipartisan support, followed by President Biden signing the legislation into law. Russia announces a significant reduction in natural gas exports to Europe within 24 hours.
B

Status Quo

38%

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US Congress approves new anti-Russian sanctions on oil exports within 14 days. Russia retaliates by cutting off natural gas supply to Europe, triggering a market panic and sharp decline in global energy prices. This leads to increased political pressure from several nations for the U.S. to scale back its stance. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The new anti-Russian sanctions bill remains stalled in Congress due to political gridlock and differing opinions on the scope of restrictions. The U.S. continues to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine while mainta

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** US Senate passes the new sanctions bill with bipartisan support, followed by President Biden signing the legislation into law. Russia announces a significant reduction in natural gas exports to Europe within 24 hours.
C

De-escalation

13%

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US Congress approves new anti-Russian sanctions on oil exports within 14 days. Russia retaliates by cutting off natural gas supply to Europe, triggering a market panic and sharp decline in global energy prices. This leads to increased political pressure from several nations for the U.S. to scale back its stance. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The new anti-Russian sanctions bill remains stalled in Congress due to political gridlock and differing opinions on the scope of restrictions. The U.S. continues to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine while mainta

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** US Senate passes the new sanctions bill with bipartisan support, followed by President Biden signing the legislation into law. Russia announces a significant reduction in natural gas exports to Europe within 24 hours.

Хотите получать такие сценарии в email или Telegram до публикации в каталоге?

Тарифы и подписки →