Geopolitical··Severity 9
Houthis say their strike prevented US military plane from landing in Israel
The Israel Defense Forces said on Tuesday evening they had detected a missile launch in Yemen
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
88%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Israel publicly announces airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen., US Secretary of State issues a public statement condemning Israel's actions and threatening further action., UN Security Council meets to discuss the escalating conflict.
B
9%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Israel publicly announces airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen., US Secretary of State issues a public statement condemning Israel's actions and threatening further action., UN Security Council meets to discuss the escalating conflict.
C
4%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Israel publicly announces airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen., US Secretary of State issues a public statement condemning Israel's actions and threatening further action., UN Security Council meets to discuss the escalating conflict.
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