Geopolitical··Severity 6
US 'not willing to put pressure on Russia' despite wanting progress in Ukraine
Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit on July 23, in a first since September 2025 as Washington has shifted its focus from Ukraine to the war in the Middle East. FRANCE 24's Kethevane Gorjestani tells us what to expect from those talks.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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39%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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