Geopolitical··Severity 9
US pauses Iran strikes as Oman pursues Hormuz transit deal
Neither side launches attacks for second consecutive night as mediators seek to avert return to full-blown war
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
72%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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