Geopolitical··Severity 6
Russia takes measures proceeding from Kiev’s attacks on peaceful facilities — Kremlin
Having lost the initiative on the battlefield, Ukrainian servicemen resorted to terrorist tactics, attempting to attack deep within Russia with drones
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
50%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased Russian rhetoric about using "all means necessary" and deployment of strategic nuclear weapons. NATO countries begin deploying additional troops and equipment in Eastern Europe.
B
36%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Increased Russian rhetoric about using "all means necessary" and deployment of strategic nuclear weapons. NATO countries begin deploying additional troops and equipment in Eastern Europe.
C
14%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased Russian rhetoric about using "all means necessary" and deployment of strategic nuclear weapons. NATO countries begin deploying additional troops and equipment in Eastern Europe.
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