Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Socialseverity 7

Uefa to boycott World Cup if Fifa plans go through

Uefa will boycott Fifa's tournaments if investment proposals from world football's governing body president Gianni Infantino go through.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Zelensky totally unreasonable, tries to scale up conflict — diplomat

Maria Zakharova noted that the head of Kiev regime was trying to engage as many countries as possible into his terrorist actions

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Four crashes and a disqualification: chaotic Commonwealth Games race to be replayed

Scotland’s Melanie Woods was originally awarded gold Women’s T54 1500m final will now be restaged on Friday It turned into Glasgow’s version of Wacky Races. After four crashes, three overturned wheelchairs, three appeals and a disqualification, the women’s T54 1500m final is to be rerun 39 hours after it first took place. The controversial decision was taken on Thursday after the extraordinary scenes at the Scotstoun track on Wednesday – and despite the medallists doing a lap of honour, posing for photographs together and going to bed thinking they were part of Commonwealth history. Continue reading...

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Fifa’s sales pitch revealed: more tournaments, more debt … but no mention of women’s game

Fifa’s 25-page sales deck produced by JP Morgan Reference made to doubling global tournaments Fifa’s sales pitch to persuade members to approve the sale of the World Cup’s commercial rights clearly states that their plans for financial growth will be achieved by staging more tournaments, having higher ticket prices and debt financing. A 25-page sales deck titled “Fifa Forward Enterprise Member Materials”, which has been seen by the Guardian, makes the case for the creation of a new company to run Fifa’s commercial operations, 20% of which would be sold to Joshua Kushner, a US investor who is the brother of Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Continue reading...

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Pressley signs new Dundee deal but warns of pain ahead

Steven Pressley says signing a new contract with Dundee was the "right decision", despite "a lot of pain ahead" for the club.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Declining PCE inflation in June likely to be reversed in July

Higher energy prices this month will send the inflation gauge back up

August 8, 2026

Economicseverity 7

The BOE Decides | Special Coverage

The Bank of England kept interest rates steady at 3.75%, as UK officials sought to balance the threat from resurgent US-Iran tensions against signs that domestic price pressures are easing more quickly than predicted. Bloomberg TV brings you Governor Andrew Bailey's press conference live, as well as, all the market reaction and analysis in a special program hosted by the Opening Trade team and a range of experts. (Source: Bloomberg)

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Exclusive: Festival supporting rescued animals forced to cancel after UK Lawyers for Israel complaint

Exclusive: Festival supporting rescued animals forced to cancel after UK Lawyers for Israel complaint A vegan festival aiming to raise money for rescued animals has been cancelled after a complaint was sent to its venue by controversial lobby group UK Lawyers for Israel (UKLFI). But three bands named by UKLFI in its complaint have hit back against it in comments made to Middle East Eye. The Great Vegan Gathering was scheduled to take place at Gilwell Park Scout Activity Centre in London from 27 August to 31 August, featuring more than 50 performers. It describes itself on its website as "a long-weekend celebration of music, food, talks, workshops and community", with all proceeds going to animal sanctuaries. The centre, owned by the Scout Association , told MEE on Thursday that it has cancelled the festival's hire of the venue. Read more: Exclusive: Festival supporting rescued animals forced to cancel after UK Lawyers for Israel complaint

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Top US science journals more likely to reject paper by Chinese authors: study

Researchers based in China or having a Chinese surname were far less likely than their US and Canadian counterparts to have papers published in the world’s most prestigious journals, according to a new study. Just 2.5 per cent of submissions from China-based researchers were accepted, compared with 8.3 per cent overall for those from North America, a team found after analysing a rare dataset of more than 110,000 manuscripts submitted to Science and Science Advances between 2015 and 2020. Even...

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Russia at important point of completing special op — Medvedev

The Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman addressed volunteers of the United Russia Young Guard and the Volunteer Company departing to the special military operation zone

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Russian swimmers gear up for 2026 European Aquatics Championships in France

Russia is competing at the upcoming European Championships for the first time since 2021

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Polish PM on war in Ukraine: next 100 days may decide its fate

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stated, speaking about Russia's war against Ukraine, that the next 100 days may decide its fate.

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Rescue operations completed in Kyiv after Russian strike: one killed, three injured – photos

Search-and-rescue operations have been completed at all locations affected by the Russian attack on Kyiv on the night of 29-30 July. According to updated figures, one person has been killed and three others injured.

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Police arrest dozens at London rally supporting Palestine Action

The protest is the first in support of the proscribed group since Andy Burnham became prime minister.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Premier League clubs agree EFL funding proposal

Premier League clubs agreed a funding proposal that they will put to the EFL over the next few days.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Transport authorities order probe after crash paralyses traffic on airport link

Hong Kong transport authorities have ordered the operator of a major road link feeding the airport to explain its handling of an accident that paralysed traffic during evening rush hour, leaving commuters fuming. Traffic between Lantau Island and Kowloon was snarled for more than three hours after a medium goods vehicle overturned following a collision with another vehicle on the Cheung Tsing Highway in Tsing Yi on Wednesday. Police said they were alerted at 7.36pm and the drivers of the two...

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

US citizen operated on at Moscow’s Sklifosovsky clinic chose it due to skills of doctors

The day after the operation, the man was able to stand on his feet on his own

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Oil Holds Gain With Fresh US-Iran Attacks, Kazakh Exports Risk

Energy markets have been rocked by a fresh round of volatility this month, as investors navigated a short-lived pause in hostilities between Iran and the US, followed by renewed fighting. The conflict is spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz, with Houthi rebels in Yemen threatening a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, while Riyadh’s forces joined with the US to hit targets in Iraq that are linked to Tehran-backed militants. Paul Sankey, founder at Sankey Research, discusses the Houthi and Saudi escalation and how it's affecting energy. (Source: Bloomberg)

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Warsaw blames Moscow after a missile crashes in Poland

Polish authorities are investigating an object that came down in eastern Poland overnight and is thought to be a Russian missile, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Thursday. The discovery followed reports of an explosion, with investigators finding a crater and debris scattered across a nearby field.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Latvia, Ukraine sign memorandum on security cooperation — defense chief

According to Raivis Melnis, the memorandum will create "the basis for the development of a competitive ecosystem of unmanned systems, as well as for investment and innovation growth"

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Mandatory evacuation of families with children announced for nine more villages in Kharkiv Oblast

Kharkiv Oblast authorities are evacuating residents from nine villages in the Staryi Saltiv hromada as Russian attacks intensify.

August 8, 2026

Naturalseverity 9

France wildfires: Risk remains 'extremely high' despite slight weather improvement

France's wildfire risk remains "extremely high" despite a slight improvement in weather conditions, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez said on Thursday (July 30), citing persistent drought and fast-spreading blazes across the country. Nunez said higher humidity and weaker winds had helped conditions, but authorities still dealt with 26 fires nationwide on Wednesday (July 29) alone, warning that vegetation remained highly combustible.

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Russia blamed for missile that blasted crater in Polish field

Poland said Thursday that a missile that blasted a 10-metre (33 feet) crater inside its territory was likely fired by Russia in its latest mass attack on Ukraine.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Dedicated followers of passion: the Kinks’ 40 greatest songs – ranked!

To coincide with a new exhibition in London about the Davies brothers, we rate the best of a band who brought a sociologist’s eye to hard rock, gentle pastoralia and so much in between The quality of Kinks albums declined precipitously from the late 80s: you sensed their hearts weren’t really in it. Even so, Ray Davies couldn’t stop himself writing the occasional gem: from their final studio album Phobia, Scattered is a sweet, sad reflection on the Davies family’s complexities, powered by jangling guitars. Continue reading...

August 8, 2026

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