Catalogue
Scenario archive
Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.
What is known about drone attack on two tankers near CPC terminal close to Novorossiysk
The tanker remained afloat, with damage assessment underway
August 8, 2026
Paris neighbourhoods: The charming 3rd arrondissement
In this edition of French Connections, Genie Godula and Florence Villeminot continue their tour of Paris with a stop in the 3rd arrondissement. This is the quieter, more local side of the Marais and one of the oldest neighbourhoods in the French capital. It's a place where medieval history rubs shoulders with contemporary creativity. From the Knights Templar to fashion designers, from royal prisoners to food lovers – not to mention fascinating and sometimes quirky museums – join us as we wander through the troisième arrondissement.
August 8, 2026
Russian strikes kill at least 8, wound dozens across Ukraine
Russian strikes killed at least eight people and wounded more than a dozen others across Ukraine, authorities said on Thursday, triggering renewed calls from Kyiv for its allies to send air defence supplies. The overnight attack, which involved 74 missiles and 284 drones according to the air force, also resulted in casualties in the capital Kyiv, and in Poltava.
August 8, 2026
US military launches 'powerful' retaliatory strikes on Iran
The United States military launched "powerful" strikes on Iran on Thursday, in retaliation for Tehran's attacks targeting US bases in Jordan as the Middle East war reignited and again drew in the Islamic republic's proxies. The first strikes after a nearly week-long lull in fighting dashed hopes of a return to negotiations.
August 8, 2026
Cooler weather and potential rain move into the French region torched by wildfires
Higher humidity, cooler temperatures and a forecast for rain raised hopes of relief Thursday for a parched portion of southwestern France engulfed by wildfires that have charred an area four times the size of Paris in recent weeks. Local officials reported a “rather calm" night, with a fire that has not grown beyond the 42,000 hectares already affected. FRANCE 24's Carys Garland reports from Lanton, France.
August 8, 2026
Japan quake toll hits 34 as survivors struggle in heat
Japanese emergency workers battled Thursday to find survivors from a wrecked shopping mall, as the death toll from a major earthquake two days earlier hit 34 and thousands sweltered in punishing heat. The quake caused widespread damage, flattening homes, damaging bridges, triggering fires and leaving tens of thousands of residents without power and water in temperatures forecast to hit 38C this weekend.
August 8, 2026
Japanese mall is rebuilt to withstand earthquakes. Then it collapses again
Japan’s Aeon Mall Kumamoto was rebuilt to withstand earthquakes after it was damaged in strong quakes in April 2016. Its June reopening was meant to be a fresh start, the gleaming building a symbol of rebirth for the mall and residents of Kashima town. Then Tuesday’s magnitude 7.1 earthquake shook this new-found confidence. “When this quake hit, I immediately knew the epicentre was close,” 30-year-old Nishiyama told Agence France-Presse. “I didn’t think this was going to happen here again.” Two...
August 8, 2026
Ukraine’s ex-defence minister blames procurement reforms for dismissal
Fedorov interview offers his most detailed account of sacking that triggered wave of protest
August 8, 2026
The Risks of Conflict Expansion from the Gulf to the Caspian
The Strait of Hormuz is nearly 3,000 kilometers (2,000 miles) from the frontline in southeastern Ukraine, but the two wars – one pitting the U.S. against Iran, the other Russia against Ukraine – are converging in the Caspian Sea basin. The reason is Iran’s deepening partnership with Russia, combined with the fact that U.S. efforts […] The post The Risks of Conflict Expansion from the Gulf to the Caspian appeared first on Geopolitical Futures .
August 8, 2026
Malaysia’s ‘shocking’ deal to return 5,000 Rohingya to Myanmar triggers refoulement fears
Malaysia’s claim that Myanmar has agreed to take back 5,000 Rohingya has raised hopes of easing pressure on the country’s strained refugee system but also drawn alarm from activists over the risks of returning members of the persecuted minority to a place still engulfed by conflict. Rights groups say any movement of refugees into Myanmar – where the military is fighting multiple conflicts and most Rohingya remain denied citizenship – will need to be voluntary and backed by guarantees of safety,...
August 8, 2026
Protest group says 30 dead in Pakistan-administered Kashmir vote unrest
Deadly clashes reported in Pakistan-administered Kashmir amid first round of voting for regional elections on July 27.
August 8, 2026
Bolshoi Ballet dancers to perform in Shanghai in October
The audience will see the famous production of "Don Quixote", set to the music of Ludwig Minkus
August 8, 2026
Gianni Infantino and FIFA under fire for private investment plan
FIFA president Gianni Infantino wants to open the commercial capital of the World Cup to private investors. International investors, including figures close to US President Donald Trump's family, are reportedly among the potential candidates. The initiative has sparked strong reactions from various confederations and football federations.
August 8, 2026
US command prepares plan for two-week air campaign against Iran — WSJ
CENTCOM believes the US military should increase the intensity of its attacks to turn the situation around, while Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine takes a more cautious view
August 8, 2026
Eddie Howe leaves Newcastle United after almost five years in charge
48-year-old under scrutiny after last season’s 12th place Former Bournemouth coach guided club to Carabao Cup Eddie Howe has left his role as Newcastle United head coach after 231 games and just under five years at St James’ Park. His exit comes in the wake of a 4-1 defeat by Bristol City in a pre-season friendly at Ashton Gate on Wednesday evening, after which he hinted at changes at the club. “There has been a lot of change at the football club and potentially more to come,” he said when asked about his optimism ahead of the new season. This story will be updated Continue reading...
August 8, 2026
Mario Vargas Llosa by Gerald Martin review – the passions and politics of Peru’s Nobel laureate
This stylish biography of the author traces his journey from left to right, and from ‘posh Lima’ to Cricklewood “At what precise moment had Peru fucked itself up?” Those words on the opening page of Conversation in the Cathedral announced the arrival of a writer who understood that national history could become the organising principle of fiction. At precisely the moment when Latin America was discovering the intoxicating possibilities of magical realism – a form whose exuberance had an elective affinity with revolutionary politics, collapsing the distinction between the marvellous and the possible – Mario Vargas Llosa plumped for old-fashioned realism instead. It was a question of sensibility as much as politics, Gerald Martin suggests in this chatty yet coolly analytical biography. He traces the path of a novelist who began by dissecting oligarchy with surgical precision and ended happily dining among its ranks, completing one of literary history’s most spectacular political migrations – from the hard left to the hard right, over the course of half a century. Continue reading...
August 8, 2026
Israeli air attacks kill six Palestinians in Gaza overnight
Israeli air attacks kill six Palestinians in Gaza overnight At least six Palestinians have been killed and 25 others wounded in Israeli air attacks across the Gaza Strip overnight, medical sources told Al Jazeera. The latest casualties add to the mounting toll from Israel’s continuing bombardment of the besieged Palestinian territory.
August 8, 2026
Ukraine's power grid operator reports impact of Russia's latest massive attack on energy system
Emergency power outages have been introduced in Sumy and the surrounding hromadas following Russia's latest large-scale missile and drone attack. New power outages have also been reported in five other regions. [A hromada is an administrative unit designating a village, several villages, or a town, and their adjacent territories – ed.]
August 8, 2026
Ukraine hits Russian electronic warfare system in Crimea with range of up to 5,000 km – video
Drone operators from the Unmanned Systems Department of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) struck a station belonging to a Russian Murmansk-BN coastal electronic warfare system near Cape Fiolent in temporarily occupied Crimea on the night of 26-27 July.
August 8, 2026
How the Iranian Economy Actually Works
After the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the country's new leaders — religious and political — promised to redistribute the country's wealth and made moves to make Iran independent from western influence and business interests. In the decades since, Iran's economy completely transformed, and it is closer to what Yeganeh Torbati and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin describe as a "mafia state," where fealty to various factions is baked into the country's political economy. In their new book Stolen Revolution: Betrayal and Hope in Modern Iran they trace the massive changes Iran's political economy has undergone since the revolution, and they speak to us today about this history, how average Iranians navigate everyday cronyism, how Iranian leaders treated the country's burgeoning tech sector, and why the recent peace talks might not change all that much about how the country's economy currently operates. (Source: Bloomberg)
August 8, 2026
IRGC says will deliver retaliatory strikes against US facilities
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated "the aggressor will be punished"
August 8, 2026
Archibald prize 2026: portrait of Jewish leader after Bondi terror attack wins people’s choice award
Artist Michael Zavros says he was inspired by a deep respect for Alex Ryvchin’s leadership, as well as an uncanny likeness between the two men An artist’s portrayal of a Jewish leader produced just weeks after the Bondi massacre has won the Archibald people’s choice category. Michael Zavros won the $5,000 prize for his portrait of Alex Ryvchin, the co-head of the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, who Zavros called an “unmistakably and unashamedly Jewish” leader. Sign up for a weekly email featuring our best reads Continue reading...
August 8, 2026
Judge orders Amy Winehouse’s father to pay nearly £1m to her friends
Mitch Winehouse ‘knowingly and deliberately’ made unfounded allegations against Naomi Parry and Catriona Gourlay, judge says The father of British music sensation Amy Winehouse has been ordered to pay £950,000 (US$1.26m, A$1.82m) to his late daughter’s friends, who he unsuccessfully sued for auctioning the singer’s clothes and other items. Mitch Winehouse earlier this year lost a case in the high court in London against two of Winehouse’s friends who auctioned dozens of her clothes and other possessions years after her death. Continue reading...
August 8, 2026
Man who stabbed Salman Rushdie in 2022 convicted of federal terrorism charges
Jury finds Hadi Matar, who is already serving a 25-year New York state prison sentence, guilty of all charges against him A man was convicted on Wednesday of federal terrorism charges in the 2022 stabbing of Salman Rushdie, the author who has faced a decades-old death threat over his novel The Satanic Verses. A jury found Hadi Matar guilty of all the charges against him, including engaging in an act of transnational terrorism. Continue reading...
August 8, 2026