Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Geopoliticalseverity 6

CPC reports drone attack on two more tankers near its terminal in Black Sea

There were no injuries or casualties among the personnel or contractor staff, and no oil spill occurred

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Explosions heard in Poland's Lublin Voivodeship, crater found in field

People in Poland's Lublin Voivodeship reported hearing explosions during Russia's latest attack on Ukraine on the night of 29-30 July, and a crater was discovered in a field. Firefighters and law enforcement officers have been dispatched to the scene.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Rolls-Royce raises 2026 targets after profits beat expectations

FTSE 100 group forecasts underlying operating profit of £4.7bn to £4.9bn by end of the year

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

In the waters off Malaysia, Iranian oil sales continue despite blockade

A large anchorage area off the coast of Malaysia is a major marketplace for sanctioned oil.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Mehta: Fed Hold Unsurprising; Outlook Unclear

30-year Treasury bonds faced backlash after the Fed kept rates unchanged but investors were worried about Kevin Warsh’s future plans to tame inflation. Rachana Mehta, Head of Regional Fixed Income at Maybank Asset Management spoke to Bloomberg’s Abeer Abu Omar on Horizons Middle East & Africa on the Fed decision to hold. (Source: Bloomberg)

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

SML Mahindra shares rally over 18% on acquisition of M&M’s truck division. What it means for shareholders?

SML Mahindra shares surged on Thursday after the company announced the Rs 525 crore acquisition of Mahindra & Mahindra's Truck and Bus Division. Analysts view the deal positively, citing stronger market positioning, operational synergies and long-term earnings accretion, though some near-term margin dilution could persist after the business integration.

August 8, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Dabur India shares fall 4% even as Q1 earnings meet estimates. What’s spooking investors?

Dabur India shares dropped over 4% on Thursday after reporting Q1 earnings. The company announced a 15% rise in net profit and 11% revenue growth. Brokerages noted steady performance, with home and personal care leading segment growth. Dabur expects double-digit revenue growth and improved margins for the fiscal year. Key monitorables include demand recovery, commodity inflation, and monsoon progress.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

KPIT Technologies shares crash 7% after profit falls 32% to Rs 117 crore in Q1

KPIT Technologies shares tumbled 7% to Rs 592 on the BSE after posting a 32% YoY drop in Q1 FY27 net profit to Rs 117 crore. Operating margins contracted to 17.2% amid client pressures and guidance slowdowns, despite management expressing confidence in H2 recovery.

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Thangamayil Jewellery shares crash 19% in 2 days on weak Q2 outlook. What did the company say?

Thangamayil Jewellery shares hit the lower circuit, extending losses to 19% in two sessions after the company warned of a weak Q2 FY27. The jeweller said sales showed no visible improvement in the first 28 days of the quarter due to geopolitical uncertainty and customers delaying purchases amid expectations of lower gold prices.

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Israeli shelling reported in Syria's Quneitra

Israeli shelling reported in Syria's Quneitra Israeli forces reportedly attacked Syria's southern countryside of Quneitra with artillery shelling, state media reported According to SANA, three artillery shells were fired towards the vicinity of Tel al-Ahmar al-Sharqi, with no casualties reported.

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Watch: Search operations for victims of US strike in Qeshm, where three were found killed

Watch: Search operations for victims of US strike in Qeshm, where three were found killed Footage released on Thursday by Iranian state TV IRIB showed rescue teams clearing rubble in search of victims in the Chah-Tango neighbourhood of Qeshm Island following a US strike. The attack struck a residential house, killing three family members, including a father, mother and their two year-old child. The two surviving members, aged 7 and 9, were transferred to a medical centre for further treatment. Footage released on Thursday by Iranian state TV IRIB showed rescue teams clearing rubble in search of victims at a residential building in the Chah-Tango neighbourhood of Qeshm Island following a US strike pic.twitter.com/6kX1WLJp6F — Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) July 30, 2026

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Israeli drones target southern Lebanese town in Tyre

Israeli drones target southern Lebanese town in Tyre Lebanese state media is reporting that Israeli drones attacked the Mashaa al-Mansouri area, located in Tyre. The casualties and damage as a result of the assault has yet to be reported.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Meet the astronomer digging into the Milky Way's 'fossils'

Amina Helmi's passion for the Milky Way is clear as soon as one steps into her small office at the University of Groningen, in the north of the Netherlands.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Messi returns to MLS training 10 days after World Cup final heartbreak

Lionel Messi returns to Inter Miami after Argentina's World Cup final defeat by Spain, which led to retirement rumours.

August 8, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Drone hits industrial area in Kharkiv

Russia attacked an industrial area in Kharkiv with a Shahed drone overnight.

August 8, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Storm apologize after co-owner berates teen girls for support of Cunningham

WNBA basketball team Seattle Storm apologize after co-owner berates girls with 'thank you' sign for Sophie Cunningham.

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Russia launches combined missile and drone attack: air defence downs 320 assets, hits recorded at 20 sites

Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine on the night of 29-30 July. Ukrainian air defence wiped out 320 out of 358 air assets; the attack is still ongoing.

August 7, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Japan Earthquake Insurance Claims May Exceed $1.1 Billion, BI Estimates

Insurance claims from this week’s earthquake in Japan may top the 175 billion yen ($1.1 billion) average for the country’s six previous major tremors, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated.

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Drones strike Wildberries logistics hub in Russia's Penza, causing major fire – photo, videos

A drone attack on the Russian city of Penza sparked a fire at a Wildberries logistics centre. Employees were evacuated and air-raid sirens sounded across the city.

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Reports of blasts at base in Jordan, as army says five Iranian missiles downed

Reports of blasts at base in Jordan, as army says five Iranian missiles downed Explosions were reportedly heard at Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. Middle East Eye could not verify these reports. Meanwhile, the country's army spokesperson said five missiles coming in from Iran were "detected, intercepted, and shot down".

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

IRGC says countries backing US will face a 'harsh response'

IRGC says countries backing US will face a 'harsh response' The latest statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that countries who aid the US will be met with consequences. "Countries involved in aiding the aggressor will receive a harsh response if they do not correct their behaviour," the statement read. The IRGC also doubled down on Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, saying: "The Strait of Hormuz is our land, and the IRGC Navy sailors have full control over it, and a stranger who has come from thousands of kilometres away will not be allowed to interfere." It added that the strategic waterway will not be opened for "as long as the American authorities' exaggerations and threats and their interference in maritime movements in the region continue".

August 7, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

Morning update

Morning update Good morning Middle East Eye readers, US attacks on Iran escalated overnight, following president Donald Trump's remarks on Wednesday that Washington would hit Iran "very hard". Several cities, especially in the south of the country, were targeted during a two hour-long wave of attacks. Here are the latest developments: A US strike on a residential house in Qeshm, located in Iran's Hormozgan, killed three members of a family and injured two others, aged 7 and 9. Hormozgan official Ahmad Nafisi said that the family members killed included a father, mother and their two year-old child. The latest statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that countries who aid the US will face consequences. The IRGC also doubled down on Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, saying that the strategic waterway will not be opened for as long as "US threats" continue. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine told US President Donald Trump that the situation regarding munitions stockpile could impact military operations in Iran, according to AP based on a US official source US President Donald Trump met with Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, on Wednesday for urgent discussions following the two countries' joint strikes on Iraq, Axios reported citing an American official. The Israeli army has intensified its attacks across the Gaza Strip, killing at least three - including a child - and wounding several others.

August 7, 2026

Socialseverity 6

National Theatre to mark 50 years on South Bank

A free outdoor installation will tell 50 stories from the theatre's half-century in October.

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Three children and three adults killed in Russian missile strike near Kryvyi Rih – photos

A Russian missile strike on a residential area near Kryvyi Rih killed six people, including three children, and injured eight others.

August 7, 2026

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