Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Israeli strikes kill two Palestinians in Gaza

Israeli strikes kill two Palestinians in Gaza Israeli drone strikes killed two Palestinians in Gaza City and Khan Younis on Wednesday evening, Wafa news agency reported, citing medical sources. An Israeli combat drone struck people near the junction of Ahmed Abdel Aziz Street and Abdel Qader al-Husseini Street in Gaza City's Rimal neighbourhood, killing one civilian and wounding several others, medical sources at Al-Shifa Hospital said. In western Khan Younis, an Israeli combat drone targeted a group of civilians in the al-Mawasi area, killing one civilian and injuring several others, medical sources at Nasser Hospital said.

August 7, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Zelenskyy and Polish PM in Lublin discuss Washington talks, investments and air defence

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said that during his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Lublin they discussed the outcome of Zelenskyy's visit to Washington, Polish investment in Ukraine and cooperation on missile defence.

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Does Modi Have a Cockroach Problem?

India’s youth-led protest movement led to a rare instance of the government giving in.

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Billy ‘the Kid’ and Bow Echo public favourites after great escape at Goodwood

Jockey extricated colt from tricky position to grab glory France and Breeders’ Cup in America targets for colt Billy Loughnane threw his goggles towards an ecstatic crowd packed around the winner’s enclosure as he returned after a thrilling, unforgettable success on Bow Echo in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday. He missed, but it was the only mistake he made all day. Technically at least, Billy “the Kid” is still a fair nickname for Bow Echo’s 20-year-old jockey. This, though, was a coming-of-age moment for both horse and rider that should see the pair of them graduate to the turf’s established elite. Continue reading...

August 7, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

The US Is Making the Most Fuel Since Pre-Covid. It’s Not Enough.

US refiners are turning crude oil into products like gasoline and diesel at a pace not seen since before the Covid-19 pandemic, but even that is unlikely to rein in soaring prices soon amid a historic fuel crunch.

August 7, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Photo of Israeli soldiers posing next to blindfolded Palestinian fuels anger online

Photo of Israeli soldiers posing next to blindfolded Palestinian fuels anger online A viral photo of two Israeli soldiers posing next to a blindfolded Palestinian has sparked widespread anger online. The image was shared on Tuesday among a series of photos on the personal Instagram account of Nikol Stelmashvski, an Israeli who appears to have recently completed her military service. It shows two female soldiers smiling while posing next to an unidentified young Palestinian who is sitting on the ground with his head down. It is not clear when or where the photograph was taken. The post was accompanied by a Hebrew-language caption that appears to mark the end of Stelmashvski's military service: “Two years and eight (months), four wars… Thousands of memories, a million and one experiences. And here came the end of a chapter of my life that I will never forget.” Read more: Photo of Israeli soldiers posing next to blindfolded Palestinian fuels anger online Viral photo shows two female Israeli soldiers posing next to a blindfolded young Palestinian (Screengrab/Instagram/@nikol.stel)

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

'We have special forces': Netanyahu unbothered by global threats of arrest

'We have special forces': Netanyahu unbothered by global threats of arrest Submitted by MEE staff on Wed, 07/29/2026 - 16:53 The defiant Israeli prime minister spoke to Fox News during his Washington visit for Lindsey Graham's funeral Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, speaks to Fox News pundit Sean Hannity in Washington, DC, on 28 July 2026 (Screengrab) Off Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Tuesday that he was not too bothered by the International Criminal Court's (ICC) arrest warrant for him, because Israeli special forces would protect him should any country try to take him into custody. "It scares me in this sense. For you, you travel internationally, God forbid you had a medical emergency, and you need to land, and you're about to land in a country that recognises the ICC. It could complicate things. Do you worry about that?" Fox News pundit and decades-long personal friend to Netanyahu, Sean Hannity, asked during the interview. "Yeah, I think about it," Netanyahu responded. "You know, we have special forces around. I served for five years." "The IDF is pretty tough," Hannity said, referring to the Israeli army. "Yeah. Let's give them a new task," Netanyahu replied. Netanyahu flew through the airspace of several ICC member states this week on his way to Washington, prompting critics to accuse those governments of aiding an internationally wanted leader. Netanyahu left Israel aboard the official government aircraft known as the “Wing of Zion” on Monday, ahead of talks with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday. Flight-tracking data showed the aircraft passing through the airspace of Greece, Italy and France before crossing the Atlantic, while a widely shared map of the journey indicated that it also entered Canadian airspace on its approach to the US. Greece, Italy, France and Canada are all parties to the Rome Statute, the treaty that established the ICC. The Hague-based court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu on 21 November 2024, saying there were reasonable grounds to believe that he bore criminal responsibility for the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare, and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution and other inhumane acts in Gaza. Netanyahu and Lindsey Graham conspired to use sex claims against Khan to delay warrants Read More » "It's the corruption of the international system. It's an unelected bureaucracy that sits in The Hague that could arrest American soldiers because you don't recognise this corrupt body any more than we do," Netanyahu told Hannity. "And they could say that the president of the United States is a war criminal. That American soldiers valiantly fighting next to us, shoulder to shoulder against the tyranny in Tehran, that they're war criminals. They could pick them up." The prime minister said he would be coming to New York City for the United Nations General Assembly in September, regardless of what legal avenues, if any, Mayor Zohran Mamdani decides to pursue. "This just hate-spewing elected official [is] pitting one group of New Yorkers against the others. He's turning them against New York Jews. I mean, what are we, in the 1930s? What is this?" Netanyahu said. Mamdani has repeatedly said he would protect the right of all Jewish New Yorkers, but Israel has accused him of antisemitism for calling on the federal government to arrest Netanyahu on account of the ICC warrant. 'Wall of granite' Netanyahu spent just under 90 minutes with Trump at the White House on Tuesday before both leaders headed to the Washington National Cathedral for the funeral for South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch and vocal supporter of Israel, and potentially the loudest in Trump's ear. The Israeli prime minister told Hannity the visit with Trump was "one of the best meetings that we've had", but he had also indicated to the Israeli press on Tuesday that it was a meeting among several senior officials, meaning he did not get a private one-on-one with the president. Such a decision would suggest Trump's advisers did not want Netanyahu to influence the president one way or another. "I always hate to disappoint our would-be critics who are trying to find cracks in our alliance, and what they find, like today, is a wall of granite," Netanyahu told Hannity. Trump himself has sounded less than pleased with Netanyahu's behaviour of late, telling Fox News earlier on Tuesday that Netanyahu wants him to keep attacking Iran when he may no longer want to. Netanyahu's quiet visit to Washington highlights Trump's frustration with the leader Read More » "We have a common commitment. We don't want to see this fanatic regime in Tehran have nuclear weapons to threaten every American and to threaten the peace of the world and to threaten the existence of Israel," Netanyahu said. "So we have a common goal, and it's going to be achieved either through diplomatic means or other means. But we're both committed to that." However, Netanyahu has made it clear he is no fan of those diplomatic means. Not long after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, Israel intensified its attacks on southern Lebanon, all the way up to the capital Beirut. A key part of the agreement was for Israel to cease hostilities in Lebanon, where it says it's going after its Iranian ally, Hezbollah. Trump then told reporters he believed Israel's attacks were disproportionate and were killing too many civilians. "Do you believe there are moderates that would like a deal and a better Iran?" Hannity asked. "I'm sceptical about the deal, and I say it openly," Netanyahu said. "But the only way it would be achieved is if Iran understood these various factions. They're not ideological factions as much as they differ on the assessment of how tough we are," he added. "I think at the end, it's our resolve. It's our common resolve to make sure that Iran doesn't get nuclear bombs to threaten every American with." The US intelligence community, under the Trump administration, had assessed that there was no imminent threat from Iran before the US and Israel launched their joint war on 28 February - so much so that the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned within hours of the first missiles being launched. US-Israel relations News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Ukraine loses about US$70m for each day of port blockade

For every day that the ports of Greater Odesa remain idle, shipments of Ukrainian goods worth around US$70 million are delayed. [Greater Odesa is a logistical and industrial hub in Odesa Oblast that combines three major ports – Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi – ed.]

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Ex-Goldman executive awarded £1.45mn after paternity leave ‘stigma’

Jon Reeves lost his job after he took six months off to look after his baby

August 7, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Pickier Retail Crowd Dumps Most Single Stocks Since Pandemic

Retail investors are becoming more selective, offloading the most individual stocks on Tuesday since the pandemic, according to data compiled by Vanda Research.

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Bloomberg News Now

Fed Faces Tough Rate Decision as Inflation Pressures Persist Trump Warns Iran of More US Strikes After Jordan Attack Stocks Slide as Oil Jumps and Chip Shares Sink Wall Street Rolls Out Protected SpaceX Investment Products Fauci Invokes Fifth Amendment at Senate Hearing (Source: Bloomberg)

August 7, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

From deer to hedgehogs: Wildfires devastate France's wildlife

As wildfires continue to tear through southwest France, thousands of wild animals are paying the price. Unable to outrun the flames or left without food and water, many have perished while others are being rescued by firefighters and volunteers.

August 7, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Russian tennis player advances to quarterfinals of tournament in Washington

In the quarterfinals, Liudmila Samsonova will play against the winner of the match between Russia's Diana Shnaider and Austria's Anastasia Potapova

August 7, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Fifa opens disciplinary proceedings against Argentina

Fifa opens disciplinary proceedings against Argentina over their behaviour after their World Cup final loss to Spain and throughout the tournament.

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Fuel prices soar on back of Iran war, leaving Yemeni labourers with no work

Construction projects in Yemen are paused as rising fuel prices trigger a domino effect on building material costs.

August 7, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Infantino’s World Cup plan is part of a desire for expansion that was clear from the start | Paul MacInnes

Fifa’s plans to sell a share of the World Cup’s commercial rights are the latest in a long line of presidential power moves In hindsight, it was all in the open from the very off. When Gianni Infantino was first elected as president of Fifa in 2016 it was something of a shock victory and prompted hope for progress after the dark days of Sepp Blatter. Infantino had promised to restore “the image of Fifa”, but also anticipated that “everyone in the world will applaud us”. He promised accountability and transparency, but the core message to his electorate was to expect a “very significant increase” in funding. Just as a side note, there were also mutterings about him spending too much time on private jets. Back then, Infantino was described as being a typical Swiss bureaucrat, but no one would make that comparison now. Leaders within football instead prefer comments such as “he thinks he’s running a nation state”. This description feels particularly pertinent in the week Fifa announced without consultation plans to sell a share of the World Cup’s commercial rights to outside investors. But Infantino’s desire to grow both professional football and the revenues it creates has always been central to his pitch. The longer his time as president has gone on, the more wedded to this vision he has been. Continue reading...

August 7, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Fifa open disciplinary proceedings against Argentina over Falklands banner and final chaos

Players brandished banner after semi-final against England Paredes and Molina investigated over brawl after final defeat Fifa has begun disciplinary proceedings against Argentina over the Falkland Islands banner displayed following their World Cup semi-final win over England. A number of players unveiled a hand-written sign proclaiming Argentinian ownership of the British overseas territory after two late goals had seen them secure victory in Atlanta, in contravention of rules on making demonstrations of a non-sporting nature. Continue reading...

August 7, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Staff at newest V&A site in London vote overwhelmingly for strike action

V&A Storehouse dispute centres on toilet and hydration breaks as employees across V&A in London also vote to strike in wider action Staff at the V&A’s Storehouse site in east London have voted overwhelmingly to strike in a dispute over what they say are inadequate toilet and hydration breaks. They will join staff across V&A sites in London who on Wednesday also voted to strike in a wider dispute over pay, working conditions, and the museum having declined to seek living wage accreditation . Continue reading...

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Russian forces attack three districts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast nearly 50 times, injuring five people – photos

Russian forces attacked three districts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast nearly 50 times on 29 July, injuring five people.

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

بھارتی پولیس نے روس میں موجود مسلمان نوجوان کو طلبہ احتجاج کے مقدمے میں نامزد کردیا

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

美以闭门会谈无实质成果 战略节奏存差异 _ 东方财富网

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

US issues new Iran - related sanctions targeting insurers , more tankers

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Jutarnji list - Ova država mogla bi se pretvoriti u novo bojište Amerike i Rusije

August 7, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Guerre en Ukraine  : la Russie accuse de terrorisme le fondateur de Telegram et le place sur sa liste des fugitifs internationaux

August 7, 2026

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