Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Socialseverity 6

UN chief hails Syria’s ‘moment of possibility’ on first visit since fall of Assad regime

Syria has an opportunity not only to recover from conflict but to build “a future that is more stable, more inclusive and more prosperous for all Syrians”, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in Damascus on Saturday as he began a landmark visit to the country.

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

81 years on: Why the Potsdam Proclamation still matters

Eighty-one years ago today, the Potsdam Proclamation was issued in Germany, marking a decisive moment in the final stage of World War II. The document was not only a final ultimatum demanding Japan's unconditional surrender but also a key international document that helped shape the postwar order.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Vietnam thanks China for support in rescuing crew of sunken ship

Vietnam on Sunday thanked Chinese authorities for their prompt support in search and rescue operations after a Vietnamese ship sank in the South China Sea, with 45 of the 62 people on board rescued by Sunday afternoon.

August 6, 2026

Naturalseverity 9

France, Spain battle wildfires amid heat, drought

France and Spain are battling major wildfires that have forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee their homes, as high temperatures, dry conditions and shifting winds continue to hamper firefighting efforts across southwestern Europe.

August 6, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

At least 20 missing in Japan earthquake as rescue operations continue

Between 20 and 30 employees remain unaccounted for following an explosion at Aeon Mall Kumamoto in Japan's Kumamoto Prefecture on Tuesday, after a powerful earthquake struck the region earlier, public broadcaster NHK reported.

August 6, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Mexico adopts new trade strategy amid Trump tariffs

Mexico adopts new trade strategy amid Trump tariffs

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

White House says Trump-Netanyahu talks 'productive'

US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday in their first in-person talks since the United States and Israel launched joint military operations against Iran on February 28.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

China opposes US move to sanction Chinese research institutions

China expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition after the US Department of Defense placed some Chinese research institutions on a sanctions list, the Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday.

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Iran, Ukraine pledge to avoid escalation after ship attack

Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, has assured him that Ukraine's Saturday attack on an Iranian commercial ship was "unintentional" and that Ukraine "does not seek escalation."

August 6, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

13 dead after powerful quake strikes Japan's Kumamoto

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Wednesday that 13 people had been confirmed dead after a powerful earthquake struck Kumamoto Prefecture in southwestern Japan.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

16-year-old Du Yuchen earns first ISSF World Cup title on home range

16-year-old Du Yuchen earns first ISSF World Cup title on home range

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Egyptian FM urges halting military operations, preserving navigation

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty on Saturday called for an immediate halt to military operations and the preservation of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea during separate phone calls with his Iranian and Omani counterparts.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 7

US rewrites science rules to stay ahead of global rivals

The US is overhauling how it funds science to stay ahead of global rivals. A new 123-page White House report scraps the post-war model of university-led research and instead bets on individual scientists, AI-driven discovery and a $5 billion platform called Genesis Mission. The report, Science: A New Golden Age, was submitted to President Trump on July 21 by Michael Kratsios, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP).

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

DR Congo's Ebola cases surpass 3,000 as vaccine research advances

The number of confirmed Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has surpassed 3,000, according to official figures released on Saturday.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Sudan's joint force recaptures five areas in North Kordofan

Sudan's joint force said Saturday it had regained control of five areas in central Sudan's North Kordofan State following military operations against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Zhang earns maiden ISSF World Cup medal, Qi reaches podium again

Zhang earns maiden ISSF World Cup medal, Qi reaches podium again

August 6, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

One month after earthquakes in Venezuela

One month after earthquakes in Venezuela

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Russia warns Japan's nuclear ambitions would erode regional stability

Russia warns Japan's nuclear ambitions would erode regional stability

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Wang Yi calls for global cooperation to advance global development

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday attended a high-level meeting in Beijing marking the fifth anniversary of the Global Development Initiative (GDI), calling on countries to uphold the banner of development, strengthen cooperation and work together to build a better future.

August 6, 2026

Naturalseverity 9

Powerful earthquake hits Japan's Kyushu, tsunami advisory lifted

Powerful earthquake hits Japan's Kyushu, tsunami advisory lifted

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Hamas delegation heads to Cairo for Gaza ceasefire talks

A delegation from the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) left for the Egyptian capital Cairo on Tuesday to continue negotiations on implementing the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, the movement said.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

China responds to planned US budget boost to counter its influence

The development of state-to-state relations and cooperation should not target any third party, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Tuesday.

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

UN chief condemns Israeli settler violence in West Bank

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has condemned the attacks by Israeli settlers in the West Bank, including arson attacks on two mosques, his deputy spokesperson said on Tuesday.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 7

China-Slovakia people-to-people exchanges deepen bilateral ties

From visa-free policies and educational exchanges to cultural cooperation and city-to-city partnerships, China and Slovakia have steadily expanded people-to-people exchanges, strengthening public support for the long-term development of bilateral ties.

August 6, 2026

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