Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Trump's move to restore direct Lebanon flights raises diaspora hopes

Trump's move to restore direct Lebanon flights raises diaspora hopes Submitted by Adam Chamseddine on Sun, 07/26/2026 - 14:10 After Lebanese president’s White House visit aviation officials say route reopening is still months away A Middle East Airlines plane prepares to take off from Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport, 11 April 2014 (Patrick Baz/AFP) Off For more than four decades, direct flights between the United States and Lebanon remained suspended, a legacy of the 1985 hijacking of TWA Flight 847 and the killing of a US Navy diver during the subsequent 17-day hostage crisis. The ban outlasted Lebanon’s civil war, repeated attempts at political normalisation and the large-scale growth of Lebanese communities across North America. That may now be changing. Following Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s visit to the White House this week, US President Donald Trump announced that he was directing his administration to allow American carriers to resume direct flights to Lebanon for the first time since the Reagan administration suspended the route. “After meeting with the President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, who has done a remarkable job working to transform his Country, I am hereby directing my Administration to allow all U.S. airline carriers to fly directly to Lebanon so that Americans can easily visit this beautiful land,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, signing off with: “Enjoy!” US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy responded to the post by saying: “You got it, Mr. President.” The announcement was one of the most tangible outcomes of Aoun’s Washington visit, which Lebanese officials had framed as an effort to secure visible US support at a critical moment for the country. Aoun’s trip came as Lebanon seeks American backing for a US-brokered framework with Israel , while also trying to present diplomatic engagement with Washington as capable of producing concrete gains for the Lebanese state. But aviation officials caution that Trump’s announcement, while politically significant, does not mean direct flights will resume immediately. Steps ahead Captain Mohammad Aziz, director general of Lebanon’s Civil Aviation Authority, told Middle East Eye that Lebanon will first need to determine whether such routes are commercially and technically viable. “We need one or two months to conduct a feasibility study,” Aziz said. He added that the next step would be formal negotiations between the two countries. “The first step after which we can say that this track has entered the practical phase is the formation of negotiating delegations between the two countries to discuss the bilateral agreement,” Aziz told MEE. “The announcement is a necessary step, because the decision taken in 1985 was a presidential decision that later led to the termination of the bilateral agreement between the two civil aviation authorities.” Will Donald Trump become America's last Zionist president? Read More » The Federal Aviation Administration has said it would work with airlines and other US agencies to implement Trump’s directive. Still, in Lebanon, the announcement was received as a possible first step towards undoing one of the longest-running restrictions affecting the country’s connection to North America. Aziz said the aviation landscape has changed significantly since 1985. “Back then, Middle East Airlines used to fly directly to New York, where the largest Lebanese presence was. Today, the circumstances have certainly changed,” he said. For Lebanese officials, one of the most important implications of the US decision may not only be the possibility of a Beirut-New York route, but also the opening of a direct route to Canada , home to one of the largest Lebanese communities outside the Middle East. Canada says the Lebanese community ranges from between 200,000 and 400,000 people, while Statistics Canada’s 2021 census recorded 210,605 people reporting Lebanese ethnic or cultural origin. “This step would certainly make possible what Lebanon wants, which is to open a direct route to Canada,” Aziz said. “Lebanon had previously concluded a bilateral agreement with Canada, but it was blocked by the United States. “This is something that could be achieved if the American decision takes its course all the way to the end.” Visits home For Lebanese expatriates, especially in Canada and the US, the issue also impacts how often they can return home, see family and maintain ties with Lebanon. Marwan Ayan, a Lebanese student in Montreal, told MEE that he received the news of a possible resumption of direct flights with “great enthusiasm”. “Visiting Lebanon is usually only a yearly plan because of the long commute,” he said. “I am a student, and I can only visit my family when I have a long vacation. If a direct flight opened and I could reach my hometown in less than a day, it would definitely increase my visits, as I am sure it would for thousands of Lebanese living here.” 'This step would certainly make possible what Lebanon wants, which is to open a direct route to Canada' – Mohammad Aziz, Lebanon’s Civil Aviation Authority At present, most Lebanese travelling from North America to Beirut rely on transit through Europe, the Gulf or regional airports. That can make travel longer, more expensive and more vulnerable to disruption, particularly during periods of conflict or instability in the Middle East. The possibility of direct flights could boost tourism in Lebanon, remittances and links with expatriate communities that remain central to the country’s social and financial life. But the path ahead remains uncertain. Resuming flights would require legal arrangements between civil aviation authorities, security assessments, airline interest and route planning. Lebanese officials also acknowledge that the commercial case for direct routes may differ from the 1980s, when Beirut-New York flights reflected a different travel market and a different distribution of the Lebanese diaspora. For now, Trump’s announcement has opened a door that had been shut since 1985. Whether it leads to actual flights will depend on the technical and political work that follows. US Sanctions Beirut News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

August 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Ukraine demands investigation into attack on Ukrainian couple in Wrocław – video

Ukraine's Consulate General in Wrocław has called for a swift response from Polish law enforcement agencies to the latest incident in which Ukrainians were harmed.

August 5, 2026

Socialseverity 6

The Phantom Pain of Rojava review – Kurdish veterans of the war against IS tell story of courage and survival

Maryam Ebrahimi’s documentary about a home for survivors of the war in northern Syria is tender, gentle and incredibly moving Speaking over footage filmed at the funeral of a female army commander, documentary-maker Maryam Ebrahimi notes that it’s the first time she has seen women carrying a coffin in the Middle East. As they move through crowd of mourners, she adds: “Their sisterhood amazes me.” Ebrahimi is talking about the women of Rojava, the Kurdish-led autonomous socialist region in northern Syria. At the cemetery, the women dig the soil with their bare hands; it is a tradition in Rojava, a final act of solidarity with their fallen sister. Ebrahimi’s tender, gentle film is about a home for injured army veterans in Rojava; most are survivors of the war against Islamic State (IS). The house is mixed genders; one of the men living there is Fadakhar, who has had both his legs amputated and is haunted at night by phantom itches and pains. Mostly, though, Ebrahimi’s gaze is drawn to the female veterans, who made headlines a decade ago for their courage on the battlefield. We learn that women started leaving their villages to fight IS in 2011 – though in truth a little more background about the history of Kurdish all-female battalions might have been helpful. Continue reading...

August 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Andrea Pirlo out of running for Italy job but defends deal with Russian betting firm

Italian politicians had raised concern over appointment Former player says he has never expressed views on war Andrea Pirlo has confirmed he is no longer in line to coach Italy, with his sponsorship deal with a Russian betting firm believed to behind the development. Several Italian politicians have raised concerns about Pirlo’s role as an ambassador for Fonbet, saying the national team coach should not have conflicting views on Italy’s support for Ukraine in the war with Russia. Continue reading...

August 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Russians continue to attack civilian vessels in blocked ports of Ukraine

Russian forces struck civilian merchant vessels in ports in Mykolaiv Oblast on the night of 26-27 July.

August 5, 2026

Socialseverity 6

ITV confirmed as 2027 Rugby World Cup broadcaster

ITV will show next year's Rugby World Cup in Australia, extending the broadcaster's coverage of the tournament to a 10th successive edition.

August 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Another Russian drone hits petrol station in Kharkiv: two people injured

Russian forces attacked a petrol station in Kharkiv on 27 July, injuring two people.

August 5, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Wo you: Chinese ancient art of travelling without leaving bed to attain ‘peace’, ‘emptiness’

The Chinese aesthetic practice of wo you, which literally translates to “travelling while lying down,” is an artistic tradition that merges Taoism and Confucianism, enduring for centuries and now embraced by younger generations as a symbol of slow living. The term was originally coined by the 5th-century Chinese painter Zong Bing. Zong had a love for travel in his youth, but as he aged and fell ill, he was forced into seclusion. To preserve the landscapes he had once visited, he painted them and...

August 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Press review: Ukraine conflict freeze impossible, while US, Iran see lull in strikes

Top stories from the Russian press on Monday, July 27th

August 5, 2026

Socialseverity 6

FIFA’s Infantino issues letter, accuses World Cup critics of spreading hate

FIFA faced criticism over several issues during the tournament, including a debate over US visa restrictions for teams.

August 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Kremlin dismisses reports of potential air ceasefire in Ukraine as media speculation

Dmitry Peskov said there are no specific details available

August 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Death toll rises from Russian strike on arms exhibition near Kyiv

Eleven people have been killed following the Russian missile strike on a training ground in Kyiv Oblast on 24 July, including a diplomat of the Order of Malta.

August 5, 2026

Economicseverity 7

RBI Intervention Lifts Rupee to Strongest Gain in Over a Month

India’s central bank sold dollars in the local currency market, propelling the rupee to its best gain in over a month, according to traders familiar with the transactions.

August 5, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Unauthorised version of Christopher Nolan’s Odyssey shared on X

A high-quality pirated version of the summer’s hit movie was leaked on Elon Musk’s X platform and viewed more than 3m times before being removed A leaked copy of The Odyssey has been taken down from Elon Musk’s X platform but only after a post flagging it gained millions of views. A high-quality pirated version of the film went viral at the weekend after an account linked to it saying “Someone uploaded ‘The Odyssey’ full movie on X. Can you believe it?”. The post flagging the film was viewed more than 3m times before the account hosting the apparently leaked film was suspended by X. Continue reading...

August 5, 2026

Socialseverity 7

‘The plane movie I’ll watch anytime’: why Up in the Air is my feelgood movie

The latest in our series of writers’ most pleasurable comfort films is a journey through US airports with George Clooney Airports have always been my happy place. From shiny citadels jutting out of the desert to shoddier European hubs located 120 miles outside the city they’re designated to serve; I love them all. With so many stories to be told, all those connections and people colliding, it’s a first-class seat to life itself. Which should go some way to explaining why I hold such a deep admiration for 2009’s comedy-drama Up in the Air . Directed by Jason Reitman and based on the book of the same name by Walter Kirn, it stars an Oscar-nominated George Clooney as Ryan Bingham, a US corporate downsizer who spends 322 days a year flying state to state doing the job cowardly employers prefer to outsource, leaving him with “43 miserable days at home”. That is until graduate Natalie Keener (Anna Kendrick) enters the firm with a cost-saving idea of firing people by video call, and hits the road with her older colleague, who is suddenly forced to grapple with the future of his own industry while re-evaluating his nomadic lifestyle. Continue reading...

August 5, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Bill Oddie, naturalist and broadcaster, dies aged 85

Coming to fame in The Goodies, Oddie was later known for his wildlife expertise and presented BBC Springwatch The writer, comedian and conservationist Bill Oddie has died aged 85. Having come to prominence with the comedy group The Goodies, Oddie later established himself as an authority on wildlife, presenting television series including the BBC’s Springwatch and Autumnwatch. Oddie’s agent paid tribute to his “intelligence and wit”. In a statement, David Foster said: “It is with deep sadness that I announce the passing of Bill Oddie, the country’s best-loved birder. Bill was a multitalented celebrity – wildlife presenter, broadcaster, comedian, writer, songwriter, musician and conservationist. Yet it was never fame that he valued. Continue reading...

August 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Suspect in Berlin Pride attack shot dead by police

German police said a 21-year-old man with a record of Islamist extremist activity was shot dead on Sunday, a day after he allegedly drove a minivan into people near Berlin's Pride celebrations, killing one person. The ramming attack happened in the Tiergarten park near the Brandenburg Gate at about 10 pm on Saturday, not far from ‌one of Europe's biggest annual LGBTQ celebrations, Christopher Street Day.

August 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russia to distract from frontline failures — expert

According to Ralf Bosshard, the Ukrainian side is waging an "information war, in which combat operations are often conducted with an eye to information campaigns"

August 5, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

France, Spain wildfires: Climate change increasing frequency, intensity of extreme weather events

The fires tearing through forests in southwest France, around the region of Bordeaux, and in central Spain around the capital Madrid have been some of the worst in decades. Climate change which has brought successive heatwaves and a lack of rain has added fuel to the fires that are raging across parched grass and woodlands. With huge amounts of CO2 released and land left blackened the question is what to do now, once these wildfires are extinguished. To get more insight, FRANCE 24’s Eve Irvine is joined by Alexander Held, Senior expert at the World Fire and Climate Resilience Initiative at the European Forest Institute.

August 5, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Spain to start first return of fire evacuees as wildfires advance has slowed

Spanish authorities said they planned to start to allow some people evacuated from wildfires near Madrid to return on Monday, in a sign of progress in fighting some of the worst forest fires in the country's history. FRANCE 24's Sarah Morris reports from Madrid.

August 4, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Wildfire threatens French defence sites ArianeGroup, Dassault and Thales

More than 42,000 hectares have now burned in Gironde, southwestern France as wildfires push closer to Bordeaux. Authorities say 240 homes have already been destroyed by the flames, which are now also threatening some of France's most sensitive defence and space industry sites.

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

FACTBOX: What we know about terror attack in Berlin, one dead, 29 injured

A man driving a small white van plowed into a crowd of people

August 4, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Student who wrote about 'anti-Jewish hatred' linked to multiple Israel groups

Student who wrote about 'anti-Jewish hatred' linked to multiple Israel groups Submitted by Oscar Rickett on Mon, 07/27/2026 - 10:00 Fellow students say Tali Smus was attacked for defending Israel, not because she is Jewish Counter-protesters holding Israeli flags pose for the cameras outside King's College London during an inter-university march for Gaza in London on 7 October 2024 (AFP/Justin Tallis) Off A pro- Israel student who wrote about being the target of “anti-Jewish” hatred at a London university disrupted a vigil held for alumni killed in Gaza and appears to have edited quotes to support her case, according to a log of group messages seen by Middle East Eye. Tali Smus, who calls herself “the British Zioness” on Instagram, recently wrote an article for the Telegraph with the headline: “As a Jewish student at King’s College, I’m being persecuted for my beliefs.” In it, she describes being left in tears at the beginning of her course in September 2024 after fellow English literature students in an Instagram group chat attacked her for being a “fucking Zionist”. Smus writes that she was ganged up on “almost 100 against one”, after she “tried to discuss our differing views and have a productive conversation”. “I am a Jewish student at King’s College London (KCL), and I refuse to remain a statistic. The anti-Jewish hatred I faced will not remain a statistic,” she writes in conclusion. Published on 17 July, the Telegraph article appeared shortly after an Al Jazeera investigation into the university’s “crackdown on pro- Palestine students”, at a time when a government “review into antisemitism in schools and colleges in England” is being conducted. But the quotes Smus uses in support of the claim that she has been the victim of “anti-Jewish hatred” are different to those contained in a log of the group chat the messages supposedly came from - a group she remained in and kept messaging long after the time in question. She also has past and present connections to multiple "extreme" Israel advocacy groups with a track record of smearing and intimidating Palestinians and pro-Palestine activists. "I am a Jewish student at King’s College London, and I refuse to remain a statistic. The anti-Jewish hatred I faced will not remain a statistic," writes Tali Smus. Read her full account of the abuse she's faced below ⤵️ https://t.co/d5tdKjW5bO pic.twitter.com/morqdhcZVu — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) July 21, 2026 Over the weekend, Smus appeared on GB News billed as the Emerson Fellow for Stand With Us , a right-wing pro-Israel group described by the Guardian as having “worked closely with the Israeli foreign ministry, including to oppose pro-Palestinian boycotts”. She also held a fellowship and has produced media content for the Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis (Camera) and is the president of the KCL chapter of Students Supporting Israel, which is partially funded by the Adelson family , who successfully lobbied US President Donald Trump to move the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Camera describes its fellows as “leaders on campuses across North America, the UK, and Israel, proactively spreading the truth about Israel”. It also connects them to media outlets. In July 2025, Smus began a blog for the Times of Israel : “So you’ve heard of James O’Brien. The antisemitic commentator on LBC.” According to her LinkedIn page , Smus was a research assistant at the right-wing Henry Jackson Society – whose senior associate fellow, former British army officer Andrew Fox, has amplified Smus’s story - and is currently a policy research intern for Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp, who she met at Britain’s March Against Antisemitism. Tali Smus did not respond to multiple emails from MEE relating to the allegations contained in this article. The Telegraph did not respond to similar questions and a request for comment. Quotes and messages In her Telegraph article, Smus says that one other student in the group chat messaged, in relation to her: “If she interrupts the... lecture again tomorrow... she should be thrown out.” The actual message in the chat seen by Middle East Eye reads: “If she interrupts the writing London lecture again tomorrow I swear to god she should be thrown out” - it is official KCL policy for teachers to ask disruptive students to leave a lecture theatre or teaching room. She goes on to write that another student then messaged: “As a group we should just band together and carry her out at that point.” While it is possible that this message could have been sent then deleted, Smus did not respond when asked if she could provide evidence it was sent. Police officers monitor a pro-Palestine demonstration at King's College London, October 2025 (AFP) Elsewhere, according to the message log, Smus appears to have amended messages relating to her. In one case she writes that someone messaged “bitch get down” - which would be a direct threat to her - when the message log contains, “that bitch has gotten down”, which, however unpleasant, is a description, and was sent in the context of Smus having unfurled an Israeli flag on campus in front of a pro-Palestine demonstration. The log shows that another student wrote about “an attempt to educate the zionists”, while the Telegraph article records this as “finally, an attempt to educate the zionists”. Smus writes that it was “almost 100 against one”, meaning that the entire group was against her, but a review of the messages shows that it was closer to 20 students who took issue with her position on Israel and particularly its genocide in Gaza. At one point, one student stands up for Smus, messaging: “What’s up with the bullying guys? This goes beyond difference of political ideologies or beliefs – it’s straight up harassment… Please be respectful.” Smus has remained in the group and continues to send messages in it to this day. Waving an Israel flag at a pro-Palestine vigil While other students in the group acknowledged that some of the messages sent to Smus could have been upsetting, they were insistent that it was her support for Israel – not her identity as a Jewish student – that provoked their ire. 'She’s scared to attend classes but feels safe to attend demonstrations that should be hostile to her' - KCL academic In October 2024, shortly after the messages were sent, KCL circulated an email reminding student of their conduct obligations. On 7 October 2024, a pro-Palestine walk-out and demonstration was held on campus. The action was partly held in memory of Dr Maisara Alrayyes and Dr Adnan al-Bursh, two KCL alumni killed by Israel. In her Telegraph article, Smus writes that on “the first anniversary of Hamas’s horrifying attack on Israel, activist students planned a pro-Palestine walk-out to mark ‘one year of genocide’”. “The fact that 1,200 innocent Israelis were murdered on that day, with more than 250 others taken hostage, did not matter,” she continues. What she does not say is that she was part of a pro-Israel counter demonstration and was pictured holding a large Israel flag. She does not mention that the walk-out was in part a vigil for the two alumni killed by Israel. How Bristol’s tallest tower will be tied to Israel’s atrocities Read More » “She’s scared to attend classes but feels safe to attend demonstrations that should be hostile to her, in order to make Instagram content,” one KCL academic, who cannot be named, told MEE. “Other students don’t like her. That’s about as far as it goes.” “I do think that some of my messages, as well as those of others, could be viewed by some as distasteful,” one fellow student in the group chat said. “I regret some of the wording I used - I was in my first year of university and encountering someone who unapologetically supports Israel's atrocious actions in Gaza hit a nerve with me and many others.” In the Telegraph, Smus writes that she was opposed because she “did not hate Israel” and that this, combined with her Jewish identity, led to a “torrent of abuse”. But the group chat log shows that she made clear from the start that she was someone who had long supported Israel and defended its actions. It is for this reason, fellow students and academic staff say, that she has been attacked. UK Politics Gary Spedding News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

August 4, 2026

Socialseverity 6

The Ban: A censorship loophole during the conflict in Northern Ireland

A censorship saga about how the voices of republican leaders in Northern Ireland were banned by the British government.

August 4, 2026

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