Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Deadly Berlin Pride ramming was 'Islamist terror attack', says German interior minister

German ​Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt ​said on Sunday that all evidence ​surrounding Saturday ‌night's ⁠attack at Berlin's ‌Pride celebration so ⁠far points to an Islamist terrorist ​attack. Police are still hunting for the prime suspect of the car-ramming, which left one woman dead and 29 others injured.

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

President Ahmed al-Sharaa: Syria seeking security deal with Israel

Syrian President al-Sharaa tells Al Jazeera Damascus seeks a security deal with Israel, and warns of chaos in Lebanon.

August 4, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Fake ICE raids and kidnapping drills: how Chinese teens prepare for US college

Beijing student Lulu Lu was just preparing for bed when she was startled by loud banging at her door. When she opened the door, a man pushed his way inside, shone a flashlight in her face and shouted: “Get down. Give me your phone.” Lu froze. Moments later, she came to her senses and did as she was told, burying her face in the mattress and raising her hands above her head. The intruder blindfolded Lu, tied her hands and finally made her record a phone message for her parents – begging them to...

August 4, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

Russia's Wildberries removes "Everything for special military operation" section but continues selling military goods

Following Ukrainian drone attacks on Wildberries warehouses, the online retailer has removed the tag "Everything for the SMO", under which over 200,000 products had previously been listed. The Russians refer to their unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine using the term "the special military operation" (SMO).

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

"No missile or ban can erase the Ukrainian word": Russian attacks have destroyed 1.5 million books in July

Russian attacks have destroyed over 1.5 million books in Ukraine since the start of July.

August 4, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Trump’s systematic assault on science

The government is politicising funding for basic research

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

US pauses Iran strikes as Oman pursues Hormuz transit deal

Neither side launches attacks for second consecutive night as mediators seek to avert return to full-blown war

August 4, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

‘Violent’ wildfires rage close to French and Spanish cities

About 335,000 evacuated in worsening blazes

August 4, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

French firefighters battle blazes with military cargo planes

Fire crews in France are battling unchecked wildfires that have forced more than 300,000 people to flee were overwhelmed on Sunday as the unpredictable blazes advances. To help stop the flames from spreading, a giant A400M military cargo aircraft has been converted for firefighting in southwest France. Swooping low over arid, fire-threatened woodlands, the plane dropped a long plume or ochre-coloured retardant. FRANCE 24's Charlotte Hughes tells us more about the techniques being used by French firefighters.

August 4, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Casemiro makes Inter Miami debut despite MLS investigation into transfer

Casemiro plays, Messi sits out during his post-World Cup rest, and Suarez scores to give Miami a sixth straight MLS win.

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

America’s North Korea strategy needs a dose of reality

Each year on July 27, North Korea commemorates “Victory Day”, marking what it presents as its triumph in the Korean war. While few outside the country accept that characterisation, the date underscores a reality: the war never formally ended. The 1953 agreement was an armistice that left the peninsula in a state of suspended conflict. Responsibility for the resulting instability is widely distributed. North Korea’s missile tests, expanding nuclear arsenal and escalatory rhetoric have undermined...

August 4, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Waves of settler attacks target mosques, homes and businesses across West Bank

Waves of settler attacks target mosques, homes and businesses across West Bank Israeli settlers on Sunday launched a series of widespread attacks across the West Bank , setting on fire two mosques in Nablus and Tulkarm and damaging heavy equipment at an industrial facility near Ramallah. Eyewitnesses told Middle East Eye that settlers also raided several towns and villages, attacked homes, destroyed vehicles and fired live ammunition to terrorise residents. The attacks targeted communities in the governorates of Nablus, Tulkarm, Ramallah, Hebron, Salfit, Qalqilya, Jericho and Jerusalem, according to Palestinian officials who said settlers were acting under the protection of Israeli forces. In the village of Qusra, south of Nablus, Israeli settlers burned large parts of the al-Rahma mosque and spray-painted racist slogans in Hebrew on its walls. Activist Abdul-Azim Wadi, from the village, told MEE that he received a call at 2:30 am informing him that settlers had burned the mosque, located in the southwestern part of the village. Read more: Waves of settler attacks target mosques, homes and businesses across West Bank

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Waves of settler attacks target mosques, homes and businesses across West Bank

Waves of settler attacks target mosques, homes and businesses across West Bank Submitted by Fayha Shalash on Sun, 07/26/2026 - 11:59 Attacks stretched from Nablus to Hebron, with Palestinian authorities calling for international action against large-scale settler violence Residents inspect the fire-damaged al-Rahma mosque in Qusra, south of Nablus in the occupied West Bank, after an alleged settler arson attack (Muhammed Ateeq/Middle East Eye) Off Israeli settlers on Sunday launched a series of widespread attacks across the West Bank , setting on fire two mosques in Nablus and Tulkarm and damaging heavy equipment at an industrial facility near Ramallah. Eyewitnesses told Middle East Eye that settlers also raided several towns and villages, attacked homes, destroyed vehicles and fired live ammunition to terrorise residents. The attacks targeted communities in the governorates of Nablus, Tulkarm, Ramallah, Hebron, Salfit, Qalqilya, Jericho and Jerusalem, according to Palestinian officials who said settlers were acting under the protection of Israeli forces. In the village of Qusra, south of Nablus, Israeli settlers burned large parts of the al-Rahma mosque and spray-painted racist slogans in Hebrew on its walls. Activist Abdul-Azim Wadi, from the village, told MEE that he received a call at 2:30 am informing him that settlers had burned the mosque, located in the southwestern part of the village. Wadi said that he, along with several other residents, went to the scene to extinguish the flames. The mosque was scheduled to open in the coming days. The residents of Qusra had painted its walls and carpeted it the previous day, but the fire caused extensive damage, including partial collapse of some of its walls, he said. Wadi said that slogans such as "Israel will be established with blood" and "Mosques will not frighten us" were written on the walls, in addition to messages that indicated that the arson was in revenge for the settlers killed in Tell . “Neighbours of the mosque saw the settlers leaving the area before the residents arrived to extinguish the fire. We also found three slogans they had written on the outer walls," the activist said. The fire-damaged interior of al-Rahma mosque after an alleged settler arson attack in Qusra, south of Nablus, in the occupied West Bank (Muhammed Ateeq/Middle East Eye) Settler attacks have repeatedly targeted Qusra, Wadi said, adding that settlers burned a mosque in the village in 2011, set fire to 47 homes and structures in 2024 and killed six Palestinians in a single day in 2023. Another mosque was set on fire in the village of Kur, south of Tulkarm, where residents said settlers also spray-painted slogans calling for revenge. The Palestinian Higher Fatwa Council condemned the attacks, describing them as part of a "systematic campaign against places of worship". "The burning of al-Rahma Mosque in the town of Qusra and the mosque in the village of Kur represents a new crime that falls within the systematic and dangerous policy of the Israeli occupation targeting holy sites and places of worship," the council said in a statement. The council also warned that repeated attacks on religious sites, including Al-Aqsa Mosque, risk further inflaming tensions. Settlers attacked a stone quarry in the Ain Samia area south of Al-Mughayyir, northeast of Ramallah, setting heavy machinery on fire and assaulting security guards. Heavy machinery burned in an attack by Israeli settlers on a stone quarry near Ein Samiya, northeast of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank (Mohammed Turkman/Middle East Eye) Quarry owner Abdel Samad Abdel Aziz said settlers burned 10 excavators, bulldozers and trucks, causing losses estimated at 2m shekels (about $666,000). "They have attacked the site and vandalised the offices before, but this is the first time they have set fires. The fires continued to burn until the Israeli army coordinated for a fire truck to enter the area, which exacerbated the damage," he said. He said three guards were injured after being beaten and attacked with pepper spray. Attacks on homes Settlers also launched an attack in Beitillu, northwest of Ramallah, where Palestinian vehicles were burned. In Beit Furik, east of Nablus, settlers attempted to set a house on fire after spray-painting slogans, before residents drove them away. In the northern West Bank, settlers attacked an ambulance transporting a patient, forcing it to turn back, near the settlement of Karnei Shomron, built on Palestinian land east of Qalqilya. Other settlers threw stones at Palestinian vehicles near the settlement of Mitzpe Yericho, southwest of Jericho. 'We want to see blood': Israeli political leadership and settler groups call for revenge against Palestinians Read More » Settlers in the town of Bani Na'im, east of Hebron, blocked a road with soil at the entrance to the desert area east of Yatta. In towns and villages around Jerusalem, armed settlers launched an attack on a Bedouin community east of the village of Jaba', firing live ammunition at residents and setting fire to a house and a vehicle in the area. They also attacked Palestinian vehicles with stones on the Wadi Qana road connecting Salfit and Qalqilya, while simultaneously deploying at the entrance to the village of Haris, northwest of the city. In the Salfit area, settlers established what Palestinian officials described as a new settlement outpost on land belonging to Deir Istiya and attacked Palestinian vehicles along the Wadi Qana road. The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned what it described as the crimes committed by settlers, considering them part of a series of organised attacks targeting Palestinians, carried out with the protection and support of the Israeli occupation forces. "Targeting mosques and other places of worship, and writing racist and inciting slogans on their walls, reflects the true face of the racist, settler-colonial occupation and its ongoing attempts to transform the political conflict into a religious one, in order to fuel hatred and justify its crimes against the Palestinian people," the ministry added in its statement. Israeli settlers rampage through Palestinian village near Nablus Read More » It emphasised that what is happening is an extension of the policies of incitement, sponsorship, protection, and impunity that encourage settlers to commit further attacks against Palestinians. "We call on the international community, the United Nations, and its relevant institutions to take practical and binding measures to stop settler terrorism, and to designate the armed settler groups that perpetrate daily organised crimes against Palestinian civilians as terrorist organisations, and to impose deterrent sanctions on their members and those who support them, in order to ensure their accountability and prosecution." According to the Wall and Settlement Resistance Commission, the Israeli army and settlers carried out approximately 11,074 attacks in the West Bank during the first half of 2026, while the Palestinian Information Centre (PIC) documented 6,856 violations in June alone. Approximately 750,000 settlers reside in the West Bank, distributed across 141 settlements and 224 outposts. Around 250,000 of these settlers live in settlements located east of Jerusalem, amid ongoing daily attacks targeting Palestinians, their lands, and their property. Israel's genocide in Gaza Ramallah, occupied Palestine News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Ukrainian tech expert posts photos of updated Russian Boomerang drone

The updated mass-attack UAV used by Russian forces, Boomerang, now features target-guidance functions and altered radio-control parameters. This was reported by Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov.

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

‘No accountability for settler war crimes against Palestinians’

‘No accountability for settler war crimes against Palestinians’

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Iran’s army issues warning ahead of Netanyahu’s US visit

Iran says it has stopped retaliatory operations in the Gulf, but warns the war could expand if US strikes continue.

August 4, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Inter enter talks with Tottenham over signing captain Cristian Romero

Inter sporting director confirms attempt to sign Romero Spurs captain helped Argentina reach World Cup final Internazionale have entered talks with Tottenham over the potential signing of captain Cristian Romero. Romero helped Argentina reach a second straight World Cup final earlier this month, but could leave Spurs this summer for a significant fee after an eventful five-year spell. Continue reading...

August 4, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Finnish president believes Ukraine's position is strongest since start of war

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has said that Ukraine's position is now the strongest it has been since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, and noted that Ukraine is ready for peace.

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

UK’s Burnham ‘putting Britain first’ as he rules out 2029 election

Britain’s new Prime Minister Andy Burnham “will always put Britain’s interests first”, he said in an interview when asked whether he was willing to call out US President Donald Trump. Burnham’s predecessor Keir Starmer, who announced ‌he was stepping down last month, had a fraught relationship with Trump due to differences over the US-Israeli war on Iran, immigration, energy and tech regulation. While Trump initially described Starmer’s successor as “extremely liberal”, he said this week he had...

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Вице - президент США и американские военачальники выразили обеспокоенность по поводу эскалации войны в Иране

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

The Legacy of Child Soldiers in Bosnia and Herzegovina

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Втрати ворога станом на 26 липня 2026 : свіжі дані Генштабу та ціна розбитої техніки

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Konflikt im Nahen Osten weitet sich aus | Jüdische Allgemeine

August 4, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Russian strikes kill 1 , injure 12 , Zelenskyy claims

August 4, 2026

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