Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Civilian infrastructure damaged during drone attack on St. Petersburg

Governor Alexander Beglov heads a crisis response center that coordinates first responders, utility workers and intra-departmental communications

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Resource-rich Sarawak's rise gives it greater influence in Malaysia

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Japanese militant who took part in 1972 Israel airport attack dies in Beirut

Kozo Okamoto, the Japanese militant who took part in a deadly attack on Tel Aviv’s airport more than five decades ago, died on Thursday in Beirut, the Palestinian group that had been protecting him said. He was 78. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a faction that is the second-largest group in the Palestine Liberation Organization, said that Okamoto had been ill for a long time. Okamoto, who made rare public appearances since he settled in Lebanon after being released from...

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Hun Manet vows to make Cambodia ‘not worth staying’ for scammers

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet pledged to step up a crackdown on transnational online scam networks, but warned the criminal syndicates were adapting by fracturing into smaller, decentralised cells across the region. Authorities had already shut down more than 670 illegal scam operations while expanding intelligence sharing with key international law enforcement partners, he said, including during a visit this week with US Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Kash Patel. “We will make...

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Metals Fluctuate as Middle East Escalation Keep Bulls in Check

Base metals fluctuated at the end of the week as the threat of an escalating conflict in the Middle East — and more turbulence for the global economy — kept a lid on optimism.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Nobel economist on anti-China, anti-science US, AI’s risks

Simon Johnson is a professor of entrepreneurship at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). A former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he won a joint Nobel Prize for economics in 2024 for his research into how institutions shape national prosperity. On June 8, the British government announced Johnson as chair of its new AI Economics Institute. In this interview, conducted on the sidelines of the UBS Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong, Johnson discussed the...

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

India’s Markets Shrug Off Student Protests for Now

Student protests in India’s capital, a political headache for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aren’t reflecting in the country’s financial markets.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

What are the Abraham Accords?

US President Donald Trump has seemingly backpedalled on a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Two civilians wounded in Ukrainian shelling attacks on DPR in past day

In all, 34 munitions of various types were fired in the reported period

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

South Africa rejects ICC petition

The Department of International Relations and Cooperation said the filing failed to satisfy the "statutory legal triggers and jurisdictional requirements necessary for action by the Court."

August 3, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Trump weighs bigger Iran strikes as two-front risk grows

US President Donald Trump said he is "seriously considering" launching renewed large-scale military operations against Iran, including strikes larger than the US military campaign codenamed "Operation Epic Fury," which was launched on February 28, Axios reported on Thursday.

August 3, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

15 killed, 40 injured as rains, floods wreak havoc in Pakistan

15 killed, 40 injured as rains, floods wreak havoc in Pakistan

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Chinese FM urges Britain to provide fair environment for Chinese firms

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Thursday called on Britain to provide Chinese companies operating in the country with a fair, equitable and non-discriminatory business environment, and avoid imposing security implications on economic and trade issues.

August 3, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Climate change exacerbating drought across Europe

Climate change exacerbating drought across Europe

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Chinese FM urges deeper cooperation among Global South countries

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with his counterparts from Brazil, Bangladesh, Brunei, India, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam on the sidelines of the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting and related meetings in Manila on Wednesday, calling for deeper cooperation among Global South countries to promote development and strengthen coordination to advance multilateralism.

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

US eyes offshore nuclear reactors

US eyes offshore nuclear reactors

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

UN warns insecurity continues to undermine Ebola response in DR Congo

The United Nations has warned that persistent insecurity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's North Kivu province is disrupting humanitarian operations.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

China, ASEAN FMs issue statement on Middle East, energy cooperation

China, ASEAN FMs issue statement on Middle East, energy cooperation

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Poll: 74.4% warn of extra-regional intervention in South China Sea

Recently, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and minister of foreign affairs, elaborated on China's principled position on the South China Sea issue at the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Mobile science labs improve science results in South Africa

South African innovation companies that design and deploy modular and mobile science laboratories for schools are helping learners improve their marks in science.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Chinese mathematicians awarded the Fields Medal for the first time

Chinese mathematicians awarded the Fields Medal for the first time

August 3, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Israeli cities open public shelters amid US-Iran escalation

Israeli cities open public shelters amid US-Iran escalation

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Chinese foreign minister meets Uzbek counterpart

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov on Thursday evening ahead of the Meeting of the Council of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States in Kyrgyzstan.

August 3, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Chinese foreign minister meets Belarusian counterpart

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov on Thursday ahead of the Meeting of the Council of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member States in Kyrgyzstan.

August 3, 2026

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