Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Militaryseverity 9

Morning update

Morning update Good morning Middle East Eye readers, Here are some of the latest developments across the region: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) it struck more US military targets in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, state news agency IRNA reported. This includes a central data infrastructure of the American company Amazon in Bahrain, which the IRGC said it attacked with several cruise missiles. The US State Department issued an alert urging its citizens around the world to "exercise increased caution", amid its war on Iran. It warned Americans of the increased possibility of attacks targeting US diplomatic facilities "or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world." UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Monday that it received multiple reports that a tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident reportedly occurred eight nautical miles north east of Oman's Limah. Hamas has elected Khalil al-Hayya as the new head of its political bureau, placing one of the movement’s most experienced negotiators at the centre of its leadership as Gaza continues to face what the group describes as Israel’s genocide. The United Nations said that it is concerned about Houthi threats to impose a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia, which could potentially trigger a fresh surge in crude oil prices, disrupt fuel supplies and have further ramifications on the global economy.

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Ukrainian air defences intercept 46 out of 58 Russian drones

Ukrainian air defences intercepted 46 out of 58 drones launched by Russia during an overnight attack.

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Russian drone strikes office building in central Chernihiv

A Russian drone struck an office building in central Chernihiv on 21 July, injuring one person and causing a fire.

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Patrick Tse’s death marks fading of Hong Kong cinema’s golden era: film academic

The death of veteran actor Patrick Tse Yin at 89 has brought Hong Kong closer to the end of a cinematic golden era, when the city’s film industry exerted influence across Southeast Asia, a film academic has said. Charles Cheung Chi-wai, an associate professor at Hong Kong Baptist University’s Department of Humanities and Creative Writing, said the glittering cohort of stars in the 1960s helped cement the city’s reputation as the “Hollywood of the East”. Tse’s son, Nicholas Tse Ting-fung, and...

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Fake kits worth £18m seized by police during World Cup

Counterfeit football shirts worth over £18m were seized in the UK during the course of the World Cup because of safety concerns, with the Fire Service warning the outfits can be a danger to those who wear them.

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Health response brings lifesaving care closer to thousands in Yemen

Thousands of people in some of Yemen's most conflict-affected communities are receiving lifesaving health care closer to home, thanks to funding from the UN aid coordination office (OCHA) through the Yemen Humanitarian Fund.

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

'You can neither threaten us, nor bribe us', Iran's Araghchi tells US, Israel

'You can neither threaten us, nor bribe us', Iran's Araghchi tells US, Israel Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said during an interview that was released on Sunday that he resisted attempts by the United States and Israel to bribe his country. “In the negotiations before the 12-day war, they had come to bribe, not to bribe me, to bribe the Islamic Republic, saying we will do this and that, we will build this and that. I told them there that our enrichment is not for sale … I said there: no bribes and no threats. You have to threaten someone who is afraid,” Araghchi recounted. Despite the conflict, Araghchi said there has been "no change" in Iran's policies or principles, adding that Iran’s “friends and enemies” told him Iran made the world realise that its “atomic bomb is the Strait of Hormuz”. "I said there: no bribes and no threats. You have to threaten someone who is afraid." During an interview that was released on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he resisted attempts by the United States and Israel to bribe his country. pic.twitter.com/BeVEG7hNW5 — Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) July 20, 2026

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 7

World Cup 2026 : Spain return to Madrid in triumph

Spain reunited with their supporters in Madrid less than 24 hours after winning the World Cup final against Argentina (1-0, after extra time). The players of La Roja, alongside head coach Luis de la Fuente, presented the trophy upon their arrival at the airport before taking part in celebrations across the capital. More than 1 million people attended the parade, which ended with a major concert at Cibeles Square.

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Hong Kong vows to launch smart system, speed water mains replacement

Hong Kong authorities have vowed to introduce a smart management system and speed up the replacement of water mains to reduce the number of pipe bursts and leakages, after residents in Shau Kei Wan went without fresh water for more than a day. The Water Supplies Department announced on Monday night plans to accelerate the replacement of water mains. It said improvement works were already under way for about 50km (31 miles) of water mains, while new works covering about 40km were scheduled to...

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Iran and US trade more attacks as Houthis threaten blockade

Iran targeted US radar and air defence installations in the Gulf on Tuesday, warning Washington of “more decisive and powerful” attacks to come as the conflict threatened to widen with a blockade of Saudi ports by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had attacked and stopped two “non-compliant oil tankers” attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, part of an effort to tighten its grip on the vital waterway while the war reignited. Following the deaths of at least three...

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Argentina players receive heroes’ welcome home despite World Cup defeat

Argentina’s players were welcomed home by fans lining the streets as the team travelled from the airport.

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Families skipping meals during holidays - charity

FareShare Sussex & Surrey says it is facing a "mountain" of need over the school holidays.

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Dad facing difficult summer as food donations plunge

Food banks and community larders are warning of an uncertain future.

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 6

SpaceX slump fails to dent Hong Kong tech as investors seen pivoting

A sharp pullback in US space-technology giant SpaceX and renewed valuation pressure on Wall Street’s tech heavyweights are unlikely to trigger a major sell-off in Hong Kong equities, according to analysts, who note that local tech firms operate under distinct business models and lack the stretched valuations of their overseas peers. “I don’t think there will be much impact” in Hong Kong, said Kenny Tang Sing-hing, chairman of the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Analysts and Professional...

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Russian forces strike houses in Kharkiv Oblast with cluster munitions

Russian forces launched a cluster munition strike on Shevchenkove in Kharkiv Oblast, killing one person, injuring eight others and damaging residential buildings.

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Paytm shares gain 3% after Q1 results. What are Goldman Sachs, Citi and CLSA saying?

Paytm shares rose 2.7% after the fintech firm reported a 79% year-on-year jump in Q1 consolidated net profit to Rs 220 crore. Revenue from operations increased 28% to Rs 2,448 crore, while total income rose 22% to Rs 2,630 crore. Profit before tax climbed to Rs 247 crore, reflecting stronger operating performance both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Russian attack on Sumy sparks major shopping centre fire, damages high-rise residential building and injures children

Russia launched another attack on Sumy on the evening of 20 July, damaging a residential building, sparking a major fire at a shopping centre and injuring six people, including four children.

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Tanker attacked in Strait of Hormuz as US strikes Iran for tenth consecutive night

As fighting escalates between both sides, Iran's interior minister travelled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

August 1, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Armenian Democracy Faces a Threat From Within

A predatory opposition, fueled by external support, is gaining influence within the state.

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Trump Needs to Defy History to End the Iran War

U.S. presidents are virtually never able to end the stalemated wars they start.

August 1, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Czech central bank chief warns against joining Eurozone too early

Aleš Michl also resists calls to lower interest rates as he criticises country’s feuding president and prime minister

August 1, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Why Canada isn’t listening to American whining in the wine wars

Donald Trump’s tariffs have taught us an important lesson in the value of retaliation

August 1, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Midwest sunset: Trump’s tariffs hit America’s agricultural powerhouse

The US is on the verge of losing its status as the world’s leading exporter

August 1, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

The Gulf nation that became Iran’s softest target

Kuwait, still scarred by the 1990 Iraqi invasion, has been repeatedly attacked by Tehran and its allies

August 1, 2026

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