Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Naturalseverity 7

Alcoa Shares Tumble After Cyclone Cuts Into Alumina Output

Alcoa Corp. cut its production forecast for alumina after operational problems at an Australian refinery weighed on output, overshadowing a quarter in which higher aluminum prices helped lift the metal producer’s revenue.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

'60 years of hurt are a big weight on English players' shoulders'

England hired a German coach to end 60 years of hurt but will exit the World Cup in the most English of ways. Another defeat in the semifinals. Another defeat from a winning position. The English media was predictably critical of coach Thomas Tuchel after Wednesday's 2-1 loss to Argentina. Speaking with FRANCE 24's Mark Owen, The Guardian sports commentator Igor Mladenovic says "60 years of hurt are a big weight on English players".

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Zelensky's dismissal of Ukraine's defence chief sparks political crisis

Rare protests erupted in Ukraine on Thursday over the dismissal of defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov as a dispute between the reformer and Kyiv's top general spilled into the open during the president's second overhaul of his wartime cabinet in a year. FRANCE 24's Emerald Maxwell reports.

July 29, 2026

Naturalseverity 9

Report reveals extent of Kenyan deaths on Russian frontline

In tonight's edition, Ebola is spreading faster in the DRC than in any previous outbreak, the WHO says. Also, new data has identified nearly 3,000 Africans recruited to fight on the Ukrainian front, with around one in six already killed. And Algeria is battling a wave of devastating wildfires.

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announces testosterone screening for US troops

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Wednesday that military personnel age 30 and older will undergo testing for testosterone deficiency as part of annual health screenings. "It's well-established science that as we age, testosterone levels often naturally drop," Hegseth said in a video posted on X along with the text: "The High-T Department of War." FRANCE 24's Fraser Jackson reports from Washington.

July 29, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Canadian wildfire sends hazardous smoke spewing into US

FRANCE 24's Yinka Oyetade speaks with Jonathan Boucher, Researcher at the Canadian Forest Service, about the measures needed to manage and prevent wildfires and render forests more resilient to the ravages of climate change. Ontario requested federal assistance to evacuate people from remote northern Canadian communities ravaged by wildfires on Thursday, as smoke brought poor air quality to Toronto and much of the Northeastern U.S.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Trump tightens US visa rules, limits stay for foreign students and journalists

President Donald Trump's administration on Thursday finalized rules imposing stricter limits on how long foreign students and journalists may stay in the United States, tightening legal immigration. Student visas would be capped at four years, while journalists would be limited to 240-day stays. Chinese journalists would face 90-day limits.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Former Italian motorway chief sentenced over bridge collapse

The former CEO of Italy’s main highway operator has been given 12 years in prison.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Trump made $1.4bn from crypto in one year. Is Justin Sun the man who helped him do it?

The entrepreneur is known in Washington as the financial power behind the president’s crypto fortune. How did Sun’s business love-in with the Trump family spiral into dueling lawsuits? The most infamous financial scandal in US presidential history – the 1920s Teapot Dome affair – involved then president Warren G Harding’s interior secretary, Albert Fall, taking roughly $400,000 in bribes. Adjusted for inflation, that’s about $6m today. Last year, Donald Trump made at least $2.2bn ; his single year of income is on the order of 200 to 300 times larger than the bribe that defined “presidential corruption” in the American imagination for a century. It’s taken for granted that Trump flogs items like Bibles and gold sneakers as a way to wring more money from his loyal base. But of the president’s $2.2bn, at least $1.4bn came from his crypto businesses. That’s an extraordinary achievement, even for an unscrupulous sitting president. How exactly did he do it without any prior background in crypto? Continue reading...

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Bank Rally Hits Short Sellers Betting on Australia Lending Slump

The upward march in share prices of Australia’s biggest banks is reversing the tumble sparked two months ago by property tax changes, and inflicting pain on short sellers who were anticipating a prolonged plunge.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Russian diplomat describes terror attacks on Russia as joint crime by Kiev and West

Western powers have become inseparable from the Kiev regime because of political and economic reasons and "understanding their total vulnerability in the current global geopolitical situation," the Russian foreign ministry’s official spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

JD Vance accuses Israel of 'manipulating' US public opinion to prolong Iran war

The US vice president says he thinks some Israeli politicians are trying to detail efforts to end the conflict.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war status, Iran says

Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war status, Iran says The situation in the Strait of Hormuz “will never return to what it was before the 40-day war,” Iranian armed forces spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari said. The spokesperson said US is “terrified” of Iran’s “sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz,” as he accused Washington of destabilising the security in the critical transit corridor. Iran has asked countries in the Gulf “not to allow America to use their territories to attack us,” he added.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for July 17

Oil held a big weekly advance as the escalating conflict between the US and Iran raised concerns about disruptions to supply from the Middle East.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

As heatwaves strike, Europeans turn to prized Chinese air-conditioner

Previously little-known in Europe, the Midea PortaSplit has become a household name this summer.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Arsenal to assess Saliba back injury with surgery an option

Arsenal will assess William Saliba's back injury when he reports back to the club after World Cup duty.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

1 dead, nearly 100 injured in crush at India chariot festival

A sudden crowd surge at a popular Hindu festival in eastern India’s Odisha state on Thursday left at least one person dead and many sent to hospital, a news agency reported. The incident occurred as tens of thousands of people gathered in the coastal town of Puri for the annual Rath Yatra chariot festival, according to the Press Trust of India. The festival is considered one of the world’s oldest and largest religious processions. The centuries-old festival involves the idols of Hindu deities...

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

Blasts reported in Iran as US launches new wave of strikes

The US says its attacks aim to "further degrade Iranian military capabilities", as fighting continued for the sixth day in a row.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 7

US Soccer coy on Mauricio Pochettino and future of sporting director position

Batson says US federation will ‘take a break’ Pochettino’s future remains unresolved Sporting director role unfilled after Crocker exit The US men’s national team leaves the World Cup with some considerable gaps in their organizational chart. Mauricio Pochettino’s future is undetermined as his contract – funded in part by billionaire donors – ends with the conclusion of this tournament. In April, Matt Crocker resigned from his role as sporting director to take a similar position with Saudi Arabia. Despite these crucial positions being open, there may not be resolutions for some time. Continue reading...

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Wakefield battle through resilient Bradford to claim gutsy five-try win

Bradford 12-26 Wakefield Visitors run riot in second half to leapfrog Wigan Wakefield Trinity survived a major scare from newly promoted Bradford to climb up to second in the Super League table and further reinforce the growing belief they are in the conversation to claim a first title in the summer era. The Bulls’ biggest successes have come at Odsal since returning to the top flight, with Kurt Haggerty’s side winning over half their home games in 2026. Wakefield arrived here heavy favourites having beaten the reigning champions Hull KR last weekend, but they did not have it all their own way on a balmy evening in West Yorkshire. Continue reading...

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 7

The bigger picture: Tuchel gets blame for England exit but this is not only about him | Barney Ronay

German will be pilloried for his semi-final decisions but that is to ignore the fact English football culture is not set up to win major tournaments “I wanted it to be you. I wanted it to be you so badly.” As England’s World Cup hopes recede into another spell of heartache , let down in Atlanta by the latest handsome, cadaverous Mr Right, a little sadder, not much wiser, sunburnt, broke, eating Jägerbomb ice cream out of the tub with a spoon, this is a good moment to seek some classic New York romcom solace. Meg Ryan was right. Don’t be sad that it’s over. Be incredibly angry and frustrated on the radio that it happened at all. Continue reading...

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Meet the Russian model whose Haaland look went viral

Russian model Anastasia Kostromina went viral after posting a side-by-side video comparing herself to football star Erling Haaland. She says she was initially surprised by the comparisons but now embraces them with humour.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Trump teleprompter operator suspended for alleged prediction market bets on speeches

US media had reported that Gabriel Perez, who has been operating Trump’s teleprompter since 2016, used his inside knowledge to win more than $100,000 (€85,900) betting on what the president would say in big speeches.

July 29, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Spain battles major Aragon wildfire amid heatwave

Spain has deployed more than 400 firefighters and 19 aircraft to combat a fast-moving wildfire in the northeastern region of Aragon after flames swept across around 7,600 hectares by 16 July.

July 29, 2026

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