Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Mobile groups of Strategic Missile Forces receive new vehicles — Russian Defense Ministry

These UAZ vehicles are equipped with 12.7-millimeter machine gun mounts

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Russia attacks Zaporizhzhia with air bombs: three killed, injuries reported – photos

Russian forces have attacked Zaporizhzhia, killing three people and injuring others.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Trump teleprompter operator faces scrutiny over prediction market bets

Aide allegedly used advanced knowledge of president’s speeches to profit on ‘mention markets’ wagers

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Transfer of extra funds to Kiev fueling escalation with Russia — Finnish politician

No limits have been imposed on Ukraine, which can use these drones with no regard to international law, Armando Mema said

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Araghchi says US attacks on Iran violate international law

Araghchi says US attacks on Iran violate international law Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US attacks on “vital infrastructure” and threats to attack bridges and power plants show “the criminal intent of the US ruling body to commit heinous crimes". US attacks are “undoubtedly a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter and the fundamental principles of international law," Araghchi said in a statement on Telegram. The minister said they amount to “serious international crimes” under the fundamental principles of international criminal law, including the four Geneva Conventions of 1949, and called on all governments "to prosecute and punish those who commit such crimes”. Araghchi also accused American officials of “absurd rhetoric and diabolical threats” amid increased US attacks on Iran.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Inside Khamenei's funeral: Revealing moments from a week of mourning

Inside Khamenei's funeral: Revealing moments from a week of mourning Iran 's late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei , was laid to rest on 9 July after a week-long funeral procession following his assassination in a US - Israeli strike in February. The 86-year-old leader, who ruled Iran for more than three decades, was succeeded by his 56-year-old son, Mojtaba Khamenei. The funeral ceremonies, held across several cities in Iran and Iraq, drew millions of mourners, according to state figures. Beyond the official displays of mourning, however, the events also revealed political messages and internal power dynamics. Read more: Inside Khamenei's funeral: Revealing moments from a week of mourning Mourners react next to the coffin of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on 28 February in Israeli and US air strikes, and coffins of his family members, on the day of his burial, in Mashhad, Iran, 9 July 2026 (Alkis Konstantinidis/Reuters)

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Colombia president-elect to open Israel embassy in Jerusalem

Colombia president-elect to open Israel embassy in Jerusalem Colombia's hard-right president-elect plans to open an embassy in Jerusalem as he seeks to restore and strengthen ties with Israel, his office said Thursday. Abelardo de la Espriella won last month's presidential runoff by less than a percentage point and has promised to clamp down on Colombia's myriad armed groups - partly by forging a military alliance with the United States and Israel. In 2024, leftist President Gustavo Petro severed ties with Israel, one of Colombia's key security partners, over its war on Gaza. De la Espriella, backed by US President Donald Trump, will take office on 7 August and has pledged to restore ties with Israel. The incoming government is moving forward with "the opening of the Colombian Embassy in Jerusalem, the capital of Israel," his office stated Thursday.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Turning Oil to Fuel Has Never Been More Profitable as Refining Margins Surge

Profit margins for US refiners making gasoline and diesel from crude oil are shattering records, as fuel supply disruptions driven by war lift prices for refined products.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

‘Part of the fun’: Mateo Pulcini feels fans’ love despite risky Fernández celebration

Only Argentinian in the Open field emulated his hero after sinking a 40-foot putt, but there was no major repeat of recent crowd trouble After making one of the longest putts of the first day, a snaking 40-footer at the last, the only Argentinian in this year’s Open field embarked on a decidedly risky celebration. First Mateo Pulcini raised his hand in the air. Then he cupped them to his ears to emulate the way his hero, Enzo Fernández, had celebrated after scoring the equaliser against England in Wednesday’s World Cup semi-final . Continue reading...

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

England had Lionel Messi under control … until one decisive and subtle shift

It was a statistically weird game for Argentina’s talisman against England, full of outliers. It didn’t matter Thomas Tuchel will have prepared for every eventuality before England’s match with Argentina. He will have considered how his team could prosper in attack while remaining solid in defence. What to change if they scored first or if the opening goal went against them and, like so many managers before him, he will have put plenty of thought into how best to deal with Lionel Messi. For the first hour he was largely peripheral, with the data showing how England were limiting his involvement in dangerous areas. Messi’s only possession in the centre of the penalty area was snuffed out by an Elliot Anderson tackle shortly after Anthony Gordon had scored. The proportion of the distance he covered that was defined by Fifa as sprinting speed (at least 20km/h) was 4.3%, lower than against Switzerland (4.6%) or Egypt (5.4%) in the previous two rounds . Continue reading...

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 6

Russian troops trying to eliminate pocket of resistance in DPR — official

Igor Kimakovsky added that Russian forces are expanding their zone of control near Konstantinovka from the west and east, particularly near the Dolgaya Balka settlement

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

'Duckett gone first ball!' - Bumrah gives India perfect start

England get off to the worst possible start in their chase of 234 as India's Jasprit Bumrah removes Ben Duckett for a golden duck with the first ball of the innings during the second one-day international in Cardiff.

July 29, 2026

Militaryseverity 6

German Military Power Needs to Go It Alone

NATO’s multinational forces are an unwieldy relic of a more peaceful past.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

How can Argentina and Messi beat Spain and Yamal to defend World Cup?

Despite Lionel Messi's presence, Argentina enter the 2026 final as underdogs to Spain and their starlet Lamine Yamal.

July 29, 2026

Economicseverity 7

US to impose new 25 percent tariffs on some Brazilian imports

Beef, coffee, and rare-earth materials escaped US tariffs amid trade tensions with Brazil over alleged unfair practices.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Houthis threaten to attack Saudi oil facilities

The attacks will be a response to any aggression by the kingdom against the rebels, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

French PM Lecornu seeks deeper ties, energy cooperation on Morocco visit

France and Morocco moved on Thursday to strengthen a renewed partnership that has flourished over the past two years, with French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu hailing their "exceptionally positive" ties in Rabat.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Monaco assassination plot takes a new turn

A woman suspected of plotting to assassinate a Ukrainian-Cypriot businessman in Monaco has been found dead in Ukraine. Two men with ties to Ukraine's intelligence services have now been brought into custody.

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Iranian MFA urges Middle Eastern states to stop US from attacking from their territories

Iran's Foreign Ministry emphasized that Tehran harbors no "enmity or ill will towards any of its neighbors or countries in the region"

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Russian Rublev triumphs against Italy’s Pellegrino to advance at ATP tourney in Sweden

The Russian tennis player will take on the winner of a match between Dutch Jesper de Jong and eight seed Argentinian Sebastian Baez

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

EU arms manufacturers team up to develop system to intercept Oreshnik

The communiqué also highlighted the contribution of Ukraine’s experience in resisting large-scale air and missile assaults, which will inform the development, testing, and operational evaluation of Bliksem EXO

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Iraqi government orders probe over weapons smuggling to Hezbollah in Lebanon

Iraqi government orders probe over weapons smuggling to Hezbollah in Lebanon Iraq's prime minister has announced a probe into cross-border smuggling to Lebanon's Hezbollah. Ali al-Zaidi said he was setting up a "high-level committee" in coordination with the Syrian government to investigate the transport of “advanced weapons” from Iraq through Syria to the Iran-backed group. Iraq's Joint Operations Command (JOC), which answers directly to the prime minister, said that it would "hold those responsible for any shortcomings accountable, in a manner that ensures the security and stability of the shared border and prevents any attempts to undermine national security." Earlier on Thursday, the state news agency Sana reported that Syrian security forces had thwarted an attempt to smuggle in a shipment of advanced weapons and missiles through the Syrian-Iraqi borders. Read more: Iraqi government orders probe over weapons smuggling to Hezbollah in Lebanon An Iraqi special forces member stands guard in a street in Basra on 8 September, 2018 (AFP/Haidar Mohammed)

July 29, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Storm Fighter: UK christens drone wingman program, unveils new designs

The Royal Air Force plans to develop a new electronic warfare drone dubbed Storm Chrome, along with a long-range, one-way attack drone called Storm Fire, according to Air Chief Marshal Harv Smyth.

July 29, 2026

Socialseverity 6

What next for England? How does Tuchel fix key problems for Euro 2028?

The manner of England's World Cup exit was meek, and Thomas Tuchel must now find a way to fix those problems as focus will soon turn to qualifying for Euro 2028.

July 29, 2026

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