Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Geopoliticalseverity 6

EU ambassadors fail again to agree on 21st Russia sanctions package

The Committee of Permanent Representatives of the EU (Coreper) failed on 15 July to make a decision on adopting the EU's new, 21st package of sanctions against Russia and decided to freeze the price cap on Russian oil until 23 July while discussions continue.

July 28, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Thames Water warns over future as Burnham eyes state control

Britain’s next prime minister is set to make an announcement on sector

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Uber nears €12.5bn deal to acquire Delivery Hero

German food delivery group will spin off Turkish and some European operations to a different buyer

July 28, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Mapping the latest US strikes across Iran

US attacks kill dozens in Iran as Iranian forces target regional bases, pushing a fragile ceasefire closer to collapse.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

EU accuses China of seeking to reshape global order in stark new strategy paper

The European Union has accused China – along with Russia – of trying to “reshape the global order in line with their interests” and “fostering a return to a sphere-of-influence logic”, in an explosive new position paper that contains some of the bloc’s strongest ever official criticism of Beijing. The paper, which was adopted by the EU’s 27 foreign ministers on Monday without any announcement, accuses Beijing of being both a “key enabler” and “crucial enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine,...

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

When life is chaos, make art

Artists create, even during times of chaos. In response to Trump policies and ICE's incursions, arts organizations are leaning in to new ways of fostering community in ways large and small.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Zelenskyy may appoint new defence minister as part of government reshuffle – UP sources

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not nominate Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov for the post of defence minister, as part of the government reshuffle.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Pakistan’s Operation Shaban Targets Both the TTP and BLA in Balochistan

Operation Shaban is in response to a deadly terrorist attack on July 7 in the Mangi Dam area, which claimed the lives of 27 police personnel.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

The Film ‘Satluj’ Revisits a Turbulent Chapter in India’s Counterinsurgency History

A biopic on human rights activist Jaswant Singh Khalra puts the spotlight on thousands of enforced disappearances and secret cremations carried out by the Punjab Police.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Amid the Afghanistan-Pakistan Conflict, India-Taliban Diplomatic Ties Are Strengthening

India’s diplomatic outreach to the Taliban has increased tremendously over the last year.

July 28, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

India’s Monsoon Deluge Reflects Intensifying Global Climate Emergency

From floods to heatwaves, cascading climate disasters expose mounting vulnerabilities demanding coordinated scientific and policy responses.

July 28, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Army reveals new details on autonomous launcher, high energy laser program

Lt. Gen. Frank Lozano told an audience Tuesday that the service is looking to award the first contracts for its CAML program next month, and it is in final negotiations with AV for its E-HEL initiative.

July 28, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Russians show how they plan to protect oil depots from Ukrainian UAV strikes

A system for protecting industrial facilities from drones, called Pautina, has been presented in Russia. The system is intended to protect oil depots from UAV strikes.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Lucid’s bankruptcy rumor is a bad sign for the EV future

Lucid Motors found itself in a tough bind this week, fending off bankruptcy rumors and watching its stock price plunge as a result. The company quickly denied the report, calling it "completely false" and pointing to its available free cash flow as evidence that it has enough runway to operate into next year. But despite […]

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

JP Morgan moving closer to $1 trillion market value milestone

JPMorgan is approaching a $1 trillion market valuation after record profits and a strong share rally. Robust investment banking, diversified operations and investor confidence in CEO Jamie Dimon have strengthened its leadership, with sustained dealmaking expected to support further growth.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Angel One Q1 Results: Net profit doubles to Rs 231 crore

In the June quarter, Angel One reported impressive financial growth, with consolidated profit after tax soaring to Rs 231.4 crore, more than doubling year-on-year. The company experienced a robust 25.4 percent increase in total income, reflecting its expanding influence in the market. Additionally, its client base surged to 3.86 crore, prompting the declaration of an interim dividend of Re 1 per equity share.

July 28, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

PL Capital sees Nifty hit 27,000 in one year, names 15 top picks

PL Capital has raised its one-year Nifty 50 target to 27,019, implying over 12% upside, while warning that the escalating West Asia conflict and a potential super El Niño could fuel inflation and hurt growth. The brokerage remains stock-specific and has identified 15 preferred large- and mid-cap picks.

July 28, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

China's oil imports plunge 40 percent, keeping a lid on energy prices

China's oil imports plunge 40 percent, keeping a lid on energy prices Submitted by MEE staff on Wed, 07/15/2026 - 17:30 China's oil imports plunged to a near decade low in June A general view of the crude oil refinery, Sinopec Jinling Petrochemical Plant, in Nanjing, China, in the eastern Jiangsu province, on 8 May 2026 (Hector Retamal/AFP) Off China’s crude oil imports in June hit their lowest level in a decade, marking a major plunge that has helped keep energy prices contained amid escalating fighting between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Chinese customs data released on Tuesday said crude imports hit 29.27 million tonnes year to year, marking a 41 percent drop. That is the lowest number on record since October 2016. China is the world’s largest oil importer. Last year, it purchased an average of 11.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil, with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Brazil among its largest suppliers. For comparison, China’s oil imports are larger than those of France, the UK and Germany combined. Energy experts have attributed China’s decision to massively scale back oil imports as one of the largest factors keeping energy prices in check amid the US-Israeli war on Iran. China is the main buyer of Iranian and Saudi Arabian oil exports. Beijing built up a large stockpile of crude before the war. The drop in imports is due to a variety of factors, experts say, including China’s severe economic slowdown. But there are signs that China has substituted crude with coal. Imports of the latter surged 30 percent to a five-month high, according to customs data. A band-aid solution China provided weapons and satellite technology to Iran in the early days of the US attacks, Middle East Eye and others reported. But its slowdown in crude imports is helping keep global energy prices in check as the US and Iran escalate their fight. The US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to extend a spring ceasefire and begin talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and governance in the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange for stopping its attacks and permitting vessels to transit Hormuz without paying a toll, Iran was granted temporary sanctions relief. Exclusive: Syria, Iraq and US plan to unveil Mediterranean pipeline deal to bypass Strait of Hormuz Read More » But fighting between the two sides has flared in recent weeks. Iran has attacked Saudi Arabian, Qatari and UAE vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz through Oman’s territorial waters. Tehran says the vessels have not coordinated passage with it, as stipulated in the MoU. The agreement does not say vessels must transit Iran’s territorial waters. The US has been escorting vessels in the waterway and has relaunched strikes against Iran. On Tuesday, the US reimposed a blockade against Iranian ports and shipping. Oil prices have risen from their low of $69 per barrel to $79 amid the fighting, but even that price is relatively tame. Overall, the limited rise in oil prices prevents the war from spilling over into the global economy. This could buy time for US President Donald Trump to continue attacks, while robbing Iran of a key source of leverage. The ink on the MoU was hardly dry last month when US inflation fell, dragged down by a plunge in American gas prices. Before the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, gas prices were at roughly $3 per gallon. Today, they are hovering at around $3.87 per gallon on average. That is still a 30 percent surge, but gas prices fell in June 10 percent, according to a US inflation report released this week. Energy News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0

July 28, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

US-Iran: Why the cycle of war, talks, repeat?

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Why keep reigniting the conflict? German Marshall Fund of the US' Carrie Lee argues the #IranWar persists because both sides seemingly believe continuous conflict gains them greater leverage in negotiations. More on #F24Debate➡️https://f24.my/C3TH

July 28, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Count Binface: The joke candidate that could enter the British Parliament

Could an intergalactic space warrior become the #UK's newest member of #parliament? Now that he is the only likely challenger to Nigel #Farage's seat in the #Clacton-on-Sea by-election, the chances of him entering the House of Commons have never been this high.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Argentine VP calls England ‘pirates’ ahead of World Cup semifinal clash

Argentina vice president's remarks made ahead of the World Cup semifinal against England and amid sovereignty dispute.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Samsung is making Amazon Music pre-installed bloatware on Galaxy phones

Don't use Amazon Music? Too bad, Samsung is installing it for you anyway.

July 28, 2026

Socialseverity 7

The Odyssey is a 'colossal piece of cinema', critics say in rave reviews

The film, starring Matt Damon and Zendaya, is director Christopher Nolan's first since Oppenheimer.

July 28, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Global views of China and Xi improve as perceptions of US decline, Pew survey finds

China’s global image has rebounded from its pandemic-era lows, with international views of both the country and President Xi Jinping improving as confidence in the United States has declined, according to a new Pew Research Centre survey. The survey, released on Wednesday, polled more than 45,000 people across 37 countries spanning every region of the world, including many advanced economies and emerging markets, such as Argentina, Australia, France, Ghana, India, Israel, Japan, Mexico, Turkey...

July 28, 2026

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