Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Naturalseverity 7

Many feared dead from 7.1-magnitude quake in Kumamoto, Japan

A powerful 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Kumamoto, Japan, causing widespread damage, injuries and fears of deaths.

August 6, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Kamchatka’s Shiveluch spews ash 9 km high

Shiveluch is the northernmost active volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Ukraine to bear responsibility for attacks on buses in Russia — MFA spokeswoman

Maria Zakharova stressed that the Kiev regime continues its attacks on civilian transport, with manic persistence seeking to take it out on peaceful citizens in revenge for its growing failures at the front

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 9

Kyiv warns Iran against escalation after Ukraine’s Caspian Sea attack

Kyiv claims its Caspian Sea strike targeted Russian warships, denying intent to harm civilian vessels or individuals.

August 6, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

18 vessels redirected by US military since resumption of blockade of Iran — CENTCOM

More than 20 US ships are currently operating in the Middle East to enforce the blockade against Iran

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

How US defence aid shaped Israel’s military developments since Oct 7, 2023

US-Israel defence cooperation spans decades, including a $33bn, 10-year memorandum of understanding signed in 2016.

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Protests in DC against Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump

A group of demonstrators gathered near the White House to protest Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington.

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Cate Blanchett and Angelina Jolie appeal for refugee protections as UN convention turns 75

Cate Blanchett, Angelina Jolie and Archbishop of Canterbury Sarah Mullally were among public figures who on Tuesday called for refugee protections to be upheld as the United Nations decried mounting pressure ‌on asylum systems. Legal safeguards for refugees are enshrined in the 1951 Refugee Convention, drafted in the aftermath of World War II, which displaced tens of millions of people. But while most people still support the principle of safe refuge, many governments are tightening border...

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Ebay Has to Pay $55.7 Million in Settlement for Its Unhinged Harassment Campaign

For months on end, eBay employees and contractors made life hell for a couple that had criticized the company. Six years later, the company is finally paying up.

August 6, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Trump hails late US Senator Lindsey Graham as 'true American original'

Trump hails late US Senator Lindsey Graham as 'true American original' World leaders gathered in Washington, DC, on Tuesday for the funeral ceremony for late Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham, who was instrumental in advocating for the war on Iran and a staunch supporter of Israel. Among those attending were Ukrainian President Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Delivering remarks at the ceremony, Trump called Graham a "beloved friend" and "a true American original". "He never saw a war that he didn’t like," Trump said, drawing laughter before adding that Graham supported military power "for the good of our country." "Above all, Lindsey Graham believed in a strong America," Trump said. "He had unwavering faith in the righteousness of American power." US President Donald Trump delivers remarks during the funeral service for the late US Senator Lindsey Graham at the Washington National Cathedral, on 28 July 2026 (AFP)

August 6, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

Israeli forces strike towns in southern Lebanon’s Tyre district again

Israeli forces strike towns in southern Lebanon’s Tyre district again The Israeli army has attacked the Lebanese border towns of Majdal Zoun and al-Mansouri again, according to reports from Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA). This comes just hours after Israeli forces blew up buildings in the same towns, as well as Bint Jbeil, NNA said. Israel has continued its military activity and occupation of southern Lebanon despite the framework agreement signed with the country in June.

August 6, 2026

Naturalseverity 9

Bad news for Bordeaux: France's celebrated wine industry faces wake-up call over wildfires

France's largest wine region is facing a wake-up call as the wildfires blazing near Bordeaux's famed vineyards underscore the climate challenges posed by severe drought and repeated heatwaves. Many chateaux do not have enough water to irrigate their entire vineyard and without rain in the coming weeks, vines ​could shut down to protect themselves, leaving grapes to shrivel, growers said.

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Oman presents Iran with Gulf-backed plan to ease Strait of Hormuz tensions

Oman has presented Iran with a Gulf-backed proposal to jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz, including a system of voluntary fees for ships using the strategic waterway, according to a Gulf source and a Western diplomat. The plan aims to provide a framework for restoring stable shipping through the strait after months of disruption caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran and further attacks on commercial vessels.

August 6, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

El Nino is a threat indicator. The military should treat it like one.

The weather forecast for the second half of 2026 is giving the DoD something commanders rarely get before disruption arrives: months of notice.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 7

FIFA plan for Kushner-backed $20 billion operation to run World Cup meets fury from Europe's UEFA

FIFA President Gianni Infantino’s plan to create a $20 billion company running the World Cup with private investors including the Kushner family was announced Tuesday — and immediately attacked by European soccer body UEFA. “It is not FIFA’s to sell,” UEFA said in a statement. “None of us are the owners of football.” FRANCE 24's James Vasina reports.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

What will it take to stop the conflict in Sudan?

The army says it's retaken a key highway linking Khartoum to El-Obeid.

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Trump and Netanyahu hold first face-to-face talks since their 'disagreement' on the Iran war

The meeting was the eighth between Trump and Netanyahu since the US president returned to office in early 2025 and came ahead of elections in Israel and US midterms later this year.

August 6, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Citadel Securities’ Fed Rate Hike Call Adds to Market Angst

On the eve of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, bond traders are on edge. While most expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged, prominent voices across Wall Street are putting their weight behind a hike in just the second meeting run by new Chairman Kevin Warsh.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Savinho open to leaving Man City amid Spurs interest

Manchester City winger Savinho is open to leaving the club and is keen to join Premier League rivals Tottenham.

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Laura Loomer's Reversal on Ukraine Stirs Up the MAGA Civil War

Donald Trump's base has been increasingly spilt. Laura Loomer's sudden embrace of Ukraine has only widened that divide.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

O'Connor bounces back to lead O'Dowda in heptathlon

Northern Ireland's Kate O'Connor is three events away from a first Commonwealth Games gold medal as she leads the heptathlon after the opening four events in Glasgow.

August 6, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

UN: Political process cannot succeed while Gaza remains devastated, violence escalates in West Bank

UN: Political process cannot succeed while Gaza remains devastated, violence escalates in West Bank The United Nations warned on Tuesday that a political process cannot succeed while Israeli forces continue to devastate Gaza and escalate violence in the occupied West Bank. Deputy special coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Ramiz Alakbarov stated in a UN Security Council (UNSC) briefing that “Gaza’s reconstruction cannot be sustained in the absence of a political process. Similarly, a political process cannot succeed while Gaza remains devastated, violence escalates in the West Bank, Palestinian institutions remain divided, and security conditions continue to deteriorate.” Alakbarov, who visited Gaza earlier this month, warned that “the increase in Israeli airstrikes and the expansion of territory under the Israeli military’s control continues to increase pressure on the population in Gaza, which is now confined to around a third of Gaza,” while attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank “have persisted at alarming levels”.

August 6, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Saudi defence ministry says it intercepted Iraqi drones targeting oil facilities

Saudi defence ministry says it intercepted Iraqi drones targeting oil facilities The Saudi Arabian defence ministry said on Tuesday that its air defences have intecepted and destroyed several drones launched from Iraqi terriroties. The ministry said that the attacks were targeting oil facilities located in the eastern region.

August 6, 2026

Socialseverity 6

Whitney Warns of Economic Reckoning This Year, Sees Fed on Hold

Meredith Whitney, the former bank analyst who rose to fame for a 2007 report ahead of the global financial crisis, warned that a US “reckoning” is coming in the fourth quarter as one-time economic boosts from the World Cup and residual fiscal spending fade.

August 6, 2026

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