Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Uncertain World Cup for Paraguay’s Almiron, sent off for covering his mouth

Almiron received the first red card for covering his mouth in the World Cup Group D match against Turkiye.

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

‘Gary, that’s my job’: Lineker makes ITV presenting cameo on World Cup coverage

Gary Lineker in familiar territory as he kicked off his ITV appearance with a light-hearted cameo as a presenter Gary Lineker was back in familiar territory on Saturday night as he returned to free-to-air TV and even kicked off his ITV appearance with a brief cameo as a presenter. Lineker, who presented BBC’s Match of the Day for 26 years until he departed the corporation last May, was revealed on Friday as a pundit for ITV’s World Cup coverage of Germany against Côte d’Ivoire in Group E. Continue reading...

June 20, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Vance departs for Switzerland for talks with Iran — aide

The US vice president said earlier on Saturday that he could travel to Switzerland "within a couple of days"

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Farewell, Scotland: Boston won’t forget the Tartan Army

They arrived with kilts, songs and endless optimism. They leave behind unforgettable memories. For one week, Boston belonged to the Tartan Army. As Scotland's supporters head to Miami, their next World Cup destination, they say goodbye to a city that embraced them from day one.

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Iranian delegation arrives in Switzerland

Iranian delegation arrives in Switzerland Iran’s delegation has arrived in Switzerland to take part in the technical talks tomorrow, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. The delegation is led by Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Meanwhile, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir are on their way to Switzerland to join the technical-level talks between the US and Iran tomorrow, according to the prime minister's office.

June 20, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

Iran says closed Strait of Hormuz as US deal hits obstacle ahead of Swiss talks

Iran said Saturday it had closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, while warning that upcoming talks with the United States in Switzerland are unlikely to advance unless the fighting stops. President Donald Trump countered by threatening U.S.-imposed tolls on shipping through the strategic waterway if a final agreement is not reached within 60 days.

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Impressive England beat Scotland to close on semis

England's batting sparkles again as the hosts close on a place in the T20 World Cup semi-finals with an 38-run victory over Scotland at Headingley.

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Sophia Dunkley smashes England past Scotland as T20 World Cup winning run goes on

Group 2: England, 200-5, bt Scotland, 162-7, by 38 runs Three wins out of three for hosts who top Group 2 England’s grudge match against Scotland at Headingley ended in a convincing win for the World Cup hosts by 38 runs, to ensure they maintained their position atop Group B. England were without their captain Nat Sciver-Brunt, who is missing this match and Wednesday’s game against West Indies after aggravating her existing calf injury. Sciver-Brunt is England’s best batter, and has looked it so far in this World Cup with scores of 46 and 48, so there was some concern as to how the lineup might fare in her absence. Continue reading...

June 20, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Bolivia declares state of emergency to clear protest blockades

Bolivia declares state of emergency to clear protest blockades

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Zelensky says Ukraine drones hit oil refinery in Russia’s Tyumen, now have 3,000km range

⁠Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said ⁠on Saturday that Ukrainian drones had struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Tyumen Region in western Siberia, more than 2,000km (1,200 miles) from Ukraine. He also said Ukraine had ‌developed new long-range drones capable of operating over more than 3,000 km. Speaking in his nightly video address, Zelensky offered thanks to the Ukrainian military’s special operations which “have reached Tyumen Region in Russia, including an oil refining facility. More...

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Netherlands defeats Sweden at World Cup

The match ended with a score of 5:1

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Meet Osito, the rescue dog winning hearts at the World Cup

A rescue dog named Osito has become an unlikely World Cup star in Mexico City, attracting crowds, selfies and social media attention wherever he goes.

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Scotland expects: What is behind McTominay's understated World Cup?

Some are suggesting Scott McTominay has not had the expected impact for Scotland at the World Cup, but is that fair on the Napoli midfielder?

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

World Cup baby joy for Norway’s Østigård while Doku plans to fly home for birth

Belgian’s decision sparked criticism in some quarters Norwegian defender followed son’s birth on video link Family life is intruding on the World Cup for some players in the shape of new arrivals, with Norway’s Leo Østigård following the birth of his first child by video link and Jérémy Doku contemplating leaving the Belgium squad to be with his wife when she gives birth, potentially ⁠missing a key match. Østigård, who has been receiving parenting tips from his teammate ⁠Erling Haaland, provided long-distance support to his partner, Aurora Eidmann, as she gave birth to their ⁠son on Friday. Continue reading...

June 20, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Fed’s Favorite Gauge Is Seen Showing Faster Inflation

The latest update to the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge is unlikely to challenge a growing consensus at the US central bank around the need for interest-rate hikes this year.

June 20, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

US promises to continue to strike drug cartels in Latin America

White House Spokeswoman Olivia Wales says terrorists of any kind will not be allowed to find safe harbor in the US or attack from abroad

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Amy Hunt beats Dina Asher-Smith to retain 100m crown at UK Championships

Hunt overhauls rival to seal victory in 11.01 seconds Romell Glave celebrates first British 100m title For all that Britain possesses its fair share of truly world-class athletes, it is a rarity for two of them to line up in the same event. It is why the women’s sprints should be savoured. Over the past couple of years, bragging rights between Amy Hunt and Dina Asher-Smith have repeatedly swung both ways. Last summer, Hunt claimed her first British 100m title in Asher-Smith’s absence, before ceding the 200m crown to her more experienced rival the following day when the pair clocked identical times. A few weeks on, Hunt won a memorable 200m silver ahead of Asher-Smith, who then hit back with the British 60m title earlier this year. To me, to you. And repeat. Continue reading...

June 20, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Trump threatens US tolls on Hormuz strait if Iran talks fail

Trump threatens US tolls on Hormuz strait if Iran talks fail US President Donald Trump warned Saturday that Washington could impose tolls on the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway if negotiators are unable to complete a deal to end the Iran war. There will be no tolls "unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed, for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs," Trump posted on Truth Social.

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Scotland 0-1 Morocco: Unique angles and behind the scenes

All the unique angles, and everything the TV cameras didn't show you, from Scotland's 1-0 defeat by Morocco at the 2026 World Cup in North America.

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Netherlands vs Sweden: Gakpo, Brobbey doubles give Dutch 5–1 World Cup win

The Dutch have four points after bagging their first win in Houston; Sweden are second with three points in Group F.

June 20, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Al Jazeera TV cameraman killed in Israeli strike on Gaza Strip

According to the Qatari TV channel, an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle attacked an apartment building in the Bureij refugee camp, killing three Palestinians, including Ahmed Washah, and wounding several others

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Germany v Côte d’Ivoire: World Cup 2026 – live

⚽️ World Cup kick-off: 4pm local time/9pm BST/6am AEST ⚽️ Player guide | Bracketology | Golden Boot | Email Will Germany (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Brown; Nmecha, Pavlovic; Sane, Musiala, Wirtz; Havertz Subs: Amiri, Anton, Baumann, Beier, Goretzka, Gross, Leweling, Nubel, Ouedraogo, Raum, Rüdiger, Stiller, Thiaw, Undav Continue reading...

June 20, 2026

scenarios.types.socialseverity 6

Netherlands thrash Sweden to all but guarantee last 32 place

Brian Brobbey and Cody Gakpo score two goals apiece as the Netherlands cruise past Sweden 5-1 to all but mathematically guarantee a place in the last 32 of the World Cup.

June 20, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Ukraine says Russian attack kills five people in Zaporizhzhia

During nightly address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns that Russia is preparing for 'massive' attack.

June 20, 2026

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