Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Geopoliticalseverity 6

US used info about fighting in Ukraine to assess potential conflict in Asia Pacific

US Army Lt. Gen. Joseph Ryan said that the US army also helps to control illegal migration from Mexico

June 3, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

US used info about fighting in Ukraine to assess potential conflict in Asia Pacific

US Army Lt. Gen. Joseph Ryan said that the US army also helps to control illegal migration from Mexico

June 3, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

No one scared by Trump's threats to impose duties for abandoning dollar — Lula

Commenting on Donald Trump’s policies since taking office this January, the Brazilian leader noted that the new president was elected by Americans "to govern the United States, not the entire world"

June 3, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

No one scared by Trump's threats to impose duties for abandoning dollar — Lula

Commenting on Donald Trump’s policies since taking office this January, the Brazilian leader noted that the new president was elected by Americans "to govern the United States, not the entire world"

June 3, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

US trade embargo against Cuba must be lifted — Medvedev

The rapprochement between the two countries stalled after Republican Donald Trump took office in January 2017

June 3, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

US trade embargo against Cuba must be lifted — Medvedev

The rapprochement between the two countries stalled after Republican Donald Trump took office in January 2017

June 3, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Palestinians Stream Back to Northern Gaza on Foot

Israel allowed displaced Gazans to begin crossing a military zone that bisects the enclave after a deadlock over hostage releases was broken.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Palestinians Stream Back to Northern Gaza on Foot

Israel allowed displaced Gazans to begin crossing a military zone that bisects the enclave after a deadlock over hostage releases was broken.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Freed Israeli Hostages Still Had Shrapnel in Their Bodies From Oct. 7 Attack

Some of the women were held alone for extended periods and spent eight months in tunnels, an Israeli medical official said.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Freed Israeli Hostages Still Had Shrapnel in Their Bodies From Oct. 7 Attack

Some of the women were held alone for extended periods and spent eight months in tunnels, an Israeli medical official said.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Rwanda-Backed Rebels Enter Congo's Safe-Haven City

Residents of Goma reported gunfire and shelling after rebels overran Congolese troops. U.N. officials estimated that more than one million displaced people were now inside the city.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Rwanda-Backed Rebels Enter Congo's Safe-Haven City

Residents of Goma reported gunfire and shelling after rebels overran Congolese troops. U.N. officials estimated that more than one million displaced people were now inside the city.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Cocaine-Funded Gangs Shake Colombia Years After Peace Pact

Attacks by powerful militias against civilians reflect the state’s inaction eight years after a peace accord removed a powerful rebel group from the field.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Cocaine-Funded Gangs Shake Colombia Years After Peace Pact

Attacks by powerful militias against civilians reflect the state’s inaction eight years after a peace accord removed a powerful rebel group from the field.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Shippers Wary of Red Sea Routes Despite Houthi Pledge to End Targeting

The world’s top three container operators said they fear instability in Gaza and broader regional tensions mean continued danger.

January 27, 2025

Naturalseverity 7

Kim Jong Un Is Doing Everything He Can to Keep North Korea's Youth in Line

The dictator, eager to shut out the influence of Hollywood and K-pop, has been exalting a “shock brigade” of 300,000 teens and 20-somethings drafted into flood reconstruction.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Shippers Wary of Red Sea Routes Despite Houthi Pledge to End Targeting

The world’s top three container operators said they fear instability in Gaza and broader regional tensions mean continued danger.

January 27, 2025

Naturalseverity 7

Kim Jong Un Is Doing Everything He Can to Keep North Korea's Youth in Line

The dictator, eager to shut out the influence of Hollywood and K-pop, has been exalting a “shock brigade” of 300,000 teens and 20-somethings drafted into flood reconstruction.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Jeju Air Crash Probe Focuses On Engine Damage After Bird Strike

Pilots’ actions after that strike are an early focus of the investigation, according to people familiar with the probe.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 6

Jeju Air Crash Probe Focuses On Engine Damage After Bird Strike

Pilots’ actions after that strike are an early focus of the investigation, according to people familiar with the probe.

January 27, 2025

Economicseverity 7

Germany's Economic Model Is Broken, and No One Has a Plan B

The country is focused on exports, but China is slowing imports and U.S. tariff threats are growing. Politicians are offering few alternatives.

January 27, 2025

Economicseverity 7

Germany's Economic Model Is Broken, and No One Has a Plan B

The country is focused on exports, but China is slowing imports and U.S. tariff threats are growing. Politicians are offering few alternatives.

January 27, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Trump Says He Wants to 'Clean Out' Gaza, Send Refugees to Egypt and Jordan

The president, calling the heavily bombed enclave “a demolition site,” proposed relocating Palestinians temporarily or long-term, a move rejected by Arab countries since the war began.

January 26, 2025

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Trump Says He Wants to 'Clean Out' Gaza, Send Refugees to Egypt and Jordan

The president, calling the heavily bombed enclave “a demolition site,” proposed relocating Palestinians temporarily or long-term, a move rejected by Arab countries since the war began.

January 26, 2025

6 / 7