S7/10Economic
Carry Trade Brings Billions Back to Turkey on Iran Deal Optimism
Foreign investors are returning to Turkey, lured by high interest rates, resilient markets and fading geopolitical risks as the US and Iran move closer to a peace deal.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 41% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence по данным каскада:
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Strong increase in Turkish bond yields exceeding other emerging market peers, 2) Surge in foreign investment inflows into Turkish banks and financial institutions. Time horizon: Within 4 weeks. This scenario suggests a rapid escalation of the positive sentiment towards Turkey. Investors are drawn to high interest ra
Horizon: 7–30 days