Catalogue

Scenario archive

Open feed of trigger events. Click a card to see the chain, A/B/C probabilities and the fact-check after the horizon resolves.

Socialseverity 7

Russian air defenses down over 6,000 Ukrainian drones over past week — top brass

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, since the start of the special military operation, Russian forces have destroyed a total of 674 Ukrainian aircraft, 284 helicopters and 227,730 unmanned aerial vehicles

September 5, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Israel not to withdraw troops from Lebanon until Hezbollah fully disarmed — minister

Defense Minister Israel Katz said the capture of the heights on the Ali al-Taher ridge, including the underground infrastructure, the day before, was "an important step towards fulfilling the task" of disarming Hezbollah

September 5, 2026

Socialseverity 7

EEF participants sign 328 deals worth nearly $78.5 billion, envoy’s office says

The Eastern Economic Forum took place on September 1-4 in Vladivostok at the Far Eastern Federal University campus

September 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Iran uses AI drones in latest retaliatory strikes on US bases — army spokesperson

Mohammad Akraminia noted that Tehran does not rule out the possibility of conducting preventive operations in the event of threats

September 5, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

IN BRIEF: Russia strikes logistics centers, equipment, cargo ships in Ukraine

A dry cargo ship carrying military-technical equipment supplied to the army by Western countries was damaged in the port of Chernomorsk

September 5, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Norway says will provide assistance to Russians from Professor Molchanov vessel — Reuters

On September 2, Norwegian authorities seized the Russian research vessel in Svalbard

September 5, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

US launches new barrage of strikes on Iran around Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. launched new air strikes on Iranian targets Tuesday following attempted attacks by the IRGC against American troops deployed to the region.

September 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

How a middling Chinese guided-missile frigate unnerves Japan, Taiwan and the US

China’s navy has introduced a new guided-missile frigate designed for coastal as well as open-sea attacks.

September 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

Iran war escalation raises concern over civilian death toll

The recent escalation of the Iran war has cast renewed attention on its civilian toll after Iran reported four killed and dozens wounded at a wedding.

September 5, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Space industry lacks workers needed to rebuild satellites lost in war, report says

The U.S. does not have enough engineers, technicians and assemblers to rebuild military space assets destroyed in a war with China or Russia, per RAND.

September 5, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Nepal’s Deadly Floods Put China and India on Edge

Geopolitical conflict will only get worse with climate change.

September 5, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Nepal’s Disaster Demands a Regional Response

The glacier collapse and floods that followed show why neighboring states must cooperate to reduce future threats.

September 5, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Iran Accuses U.S. Military of a War Crime

Renewed fighting has taken a deadly turn after a month without major military action.

September 5, 2026

Socialseverity 7

Soccer’s Favorite Strongman

José Mourinho’s lessons on how to influence people (and not win friends).

September 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

India’s BrahMos at Sea: Implications for South Asian Stability

The planned Indian deployment of the BrahMos missile on all of its naval warships has destabilizing implications for the region.

September 5, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

A Deadly Flood Underscores the CCP-Imposed Information Vacuum in Tibet

The disaster exposed a stark contrast: open reporting is emerging from Nepal, while information from Tibet remains almost entirely dependent on China’s tightly controlled state media.

September 5, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

The ‘Unique’ Communications That Saved Lives Before Nepal’s Devastating Flood

Survivors and experts say that instant word-of-mouth warnings may have saved hundreds of lives on August 26.

September 5, 2026

Militaryseverity 8

Indonesia, United States Kick Off Annual Multinational Military Exercises

Super Garuda Shield 2026 will involve more than 4,700 troops from 13 nations, and observers from a further eight others.

September 5, 2026

Economicseverity 7

Ethanol Issue Has Entered Indian Kitchens, Impacting Household Budgets

What began as an energy policy to reduce crude imports has travelled through the agricultural supply chain and ended up on the dinner table.

September 5, 2026

Economicseverity 7

From Partnership to Penalty: US Tariffs Shadow India Trade Deal

The promise of deeper economic cooperation is undermined by punitive measures that could torpedo the India-U.S. pact even before it is signed.

September 5, 2026

Geopoliticalseverity 8

The US Arms Bottleneck Is Impacting Its East Asian Allies

Taiwan's Patriot missiles, and Japan's Tomahawks are competing in the same queue as Ukraine and the Iran replenishment. But there are solutions.

September 5, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

The Lasting Economic Damage From the China-Nepal Flood

Beyond the immediate devastation, the abrupt closure of the China-Nepal trade corridor – again – will reshape the local economy for years to come.

September 5, 2026

Militaryseverity 9

Security Is the Key to Resolving the Thai-Cambodia Border Conflict

“The first step is security: uphold the ceasefire, reduce military risks, clear mines, strengthen law enforcement, and cooperate against criminal networks.”

September 5, 2026

Naturalseverity 7

Central Asia’s Energy Transition Depends on Water Security

A more integrated and flexible power system could give Central Asian states greater room to manage drought, hydropower volatility, and competing demands for water.

September 5, 2026

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