Question 1

Сценарий A: Эскалация?

Accepted Answer

Russia escalates its offensive in Ukraine, targeting key infrastructure and supply lines. Increased military pressure leads to Ukrainian casualties exceeding 10,000 within a week. This triggers NATO member states to provide more advanced weaponry to Ukraine, potentially including long-range missiles. Confirmation Indicators: Reports of increased Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., power plants, fuel depots) and a (87% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Статус-кво?

Accepted Answer

Russia escalates its offensive in Ukraine, targeting key infrastructure and supply lines. Increased military pressure leads to Ukrainian casualties exceeding 10,000 within a week. This triggers NATO member states to provide more advanced weaponry to Ukraine, potentially including long-range missiles. Confirmation Indicators: Reports of increased Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., power plants, fuel depots) and a (9% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: Деэскалация?

Accepted Answer

Russia escalates its offensive in Ukraine, targeting key infrastructure and supply lines. Increased military pressure leads to Ukrainian casualties exceeding 10,000 within a week. This triggers NATO member states to provide more advanced weaponry to Ukraine, potentially including long-range missiles. Confirmation Indicators: Reports of increased Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine (e.g., power plants, fuel depots) and a (4% model probability, not a guarantee)