S8/10Military
Vote count starts in Guinea-Bissau referendum on strengthening presidency
Ten months after a coup, military leaders say the referendum is designed to stabilise future civilian governments.
Source: Al JazeeraOriginal source
⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days
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