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Middle East: From Lebanon to the Strait of Hormuz, a region hangs on fragile peace talks

Since Tuesday, United Nations peacekeepers have detected no airstrikes or new missile fire in southern Lebanon.

The lull remains fragile, however, as Israeli drones continue to fly over the area and military operations continue on the ground.

Source: UN NewsOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Horizon: 7–30 days

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