Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with sustained pressure on US inflation due to rising energy prices and food costs. This leads to increased consumer anxiety about their purchasing power, potentially resulting in a slowdown of consumer spending. This could further exacerbate inflationary pressures as businesses raise prices to offset the increased cost of goods and services. Confirmation indicators: A surge in unemployment claims exceeding expectations, followed by a sharp decline in consumer confidence index (CCI) scores for the US. Time horizon: 10-20 days. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario continues with the current trend of inflation pressures. While the rate of inflation may remain high, it could stabilize as the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy to control price increases. This would likely i (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with sustained pressure on US inflation due to rising energy prices and food costs. This leads to increased consumer anxiety about their purchasing power, potentially resulting in a slowdown of consumer spending. This could further exacerbate inflationary pressures as businesses raise prices to offset the increased cost of goods and services. Confirmation indicators: A surge in unemployment claims exceeding expectations, followed by a sharp decline in consumer confidence index (CCI) scores for the US. Time horizon: 10-20 days. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario continues with the current trend of inflation pressures. While the rate of inflation may remain high, it could stabilize as the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy to control price increases. This would likely i (35% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% The escalation chain begins with sustained pressure on US inflation due to rising energy prices and food costs. This leads to increased consumer anxiety about their purchasing power, potentially resulting in a slowdown of consumer spending. This could further exacerbate inflationary pressures as businesses raise prices to offset the increased cost of goods and services. Confirmation indicators: A surge in unemployment claims exceeding expectations, followed by a sharp decline in consumer confidence index (CCI) scores for the US. Time horizon: 10-20 days. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The status quo scenario continues with the current trend of inflation pressures. While the rate of inflation may remain high, it could stabilize as the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy to control price increases. This would likely i (13% model probability, not a guarantee)