Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel lead to a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This triggers a global energy crisis, with oil prices surging past $150 per barrel within 10 days. Investors react by selling off equities globally, leading to a sharp sell-off in Indian markets as well, potentially causing a further decline in the rupee. * International news outlets report a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz with no clear resolution. * A spike in global oil inventories below average levels. * The Indian government announces a series of energy-saving measures. --- Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel remain high, but there is no significant disruption to the Strait of Hor (65% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel lead to a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This triggers a global energy crisis, with oil prices surging past $150 per barrel within 10 days. Investors react by selling off equities globally, leading to a sharp sell-off in Indian markets as well, potentially causing a further decline in the rupee. * International news outlets report a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz with no clear resolution. * A spike in global oil inventories below average levels. * The Indian government announces a series of energy-saving measures. --- Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel remain high, but there is no significant disruption to the Strait of Hor (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel lead to a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This triggers a global energy crisis, with oil prices surging past $150 per barrel within 10 days. Investors react by selling off equities globally, leading to a sharp sell-off in Indian markets as well, potentially causing a further decline in the rupee. * International news outlets report a sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz with no clear resolution. * A spike in global oil inventories below average levels. * The Indian government announces a series of energy-saving measures. --- Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel remain high, but there is no significant disruption to the Strait of Hor (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

Цены на нефть достигнут $150? Как индийские фондовые рынки могут отреагировать на бушующую войну с Ираном

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