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S8/10Military
Russia would need 70,000 troops to threaten Ukraine from Belarus, Kyiv is watching border
Ukraine is monitoring the situation on the border with Belarus, and the threat will only become real if Russia transfers 70,000 troops there.
Source: Ukrainska PravdaOriginal source
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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация
Horizon: 7–30 days
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