S7/10Economic
EAEU projects aggregate GDP growth at around 2.5% in 2026-2027 — Tokayev
Despite the instability and volatility of global markets, trade turnover between member states exceeded $95 bln last year, the Kazakh president noted
29 May 2026, 10:37 UTCSource: TASS English
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 49% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A public statement from the EAEU expressing dissatisfaction with current trade practices between member states within 30 days. A significant increase in diplomatic tensions between Russia and a major EU member state within 60 days.
- ◆Time Horizon: 120
Horizon: 120–180 days
B
Status quo— 37% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A public statement from the EAEU expressing dissatisfaction with current trade practices between member states within 30 days. A significant increase in diplomatic tensions between Russia and a major EU member state within 60 days.
- ◆Time Horizon: 120
Horizon: 120–180 days
C
De-escalation— 14% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆A public statement from the EAEU expressing dissatisfaction with current trade practices between member states within 30 days. A significant increase in diplomatic tensions between Russia and a major EU member state within 60 days.
- ◆Time Horizon: 120
Horizon: 120–180 days