Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Weaker inflationary pressures lead to delayed interest rate hikes by central banks globally. This fuels speculation about further easing measures, leading to increased market volatility and a potential rise in bond yields. * Confirmation indicators: Major central bank announcements indicating continued easing policies or delaying interest rate hikes for longer than expected. * Time horizon: 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Inflationary pressures remain relatively stable and moderate, leading to a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Central banks adopt a cautious approach, gradually increasing interest rates in small increments, while monitoring the impact on inflation and economic growth. * Confirmation indicators: Inflation rate remains within target range for most develop (50% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Weaker inflationary pressures lead to delayed interest rate hikes by central banks globally. This fuels speculation about further easing measures, leading to increased market volatility and a potential rise in bond yields. * Confirmation indicators: Major central bank announcements indicating continued easing policies or delaying interest rate hikes for longer than expected. * Time horizon: 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Inflationary pressures remain relatively stable and moderate, leading to a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Central banks adopt a cautious approach, gradually increasing interest rates in small increments, while monitoring the impact on inflation and economic growth. * Confirmation indicators: Inflation rate remains within target range for most develop (37% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Weaker inflationary pressures lead to delayed interest rate hikes by central banks globally. This fuels speculation about further easing measures, leading to increased market volatility and a potential rise in bond yields. * Confirmation indicators: Major central bank announcements indicating continued easing policies or delaying interest rate hikes for longer than expected. * Time horizon: 60 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Inflationary pressures remain relatively stable and moderate, leading to a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Central banks adopt a cautious approach, gradually increasing interest rates in small increments, while monitoring the impact on inflation and economic growth. * Confirmation indicators: Inflation rate remains within target range for most develop (14% model probability, not a guarantee)