Question 1

Сценарий A: Эскалация?

Accepted Answer

Russian forces continue their offensive in Konstantinovka and Krasny Liman, pushing Ukrainian defenses back further. International condemnation of Russia's actions intensifies, leading to a potential escalation of sanctions or increased military aid for Ukraine from NATO allies. This could trigger a renewed focus on the conflict by global media and political actors, potentially leading to more direct involvement from other countries in the (80% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Статус-кво?

Accepted Answer

Russian forces continue their offensive in Konstantinovka and Krasny Liman, pushing Ukrainian defenses back further. International condemnation of Russia's actions intensifies, leading to a potential escalation of sanctions or increased military aid for Ukraine from NATO allies. This could trigger a renewed focus on the conflict by global media and political actors, potentially leading to more direct involvement from other countries in the (14% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: Деэскалация?

Accepted Answer

Russian forces continue their offensive in Konstantinovka and Krasny Liman, pushing Ukrainian defenses back further. International condemnation of Russia's actions intensifies, leading to a potential escalation of sanctions or increased military aid for Ukraine from NATO allies. This could trigger a renewed focus on the conflict by global media and political actors, potentially leading to more direct involvement from other countries in the (5% model probability, not a guarantee)