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Citadel Says Fed’s New Regime Could Stabilize Treasury Long End

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s commitment to lowering inflation bolsters the Fed’s credibility, supporting long-dated Treasury yields and a lower term-premium, according to Citadel Securities.

Source: Bloomberg MarketsOriginal source

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⚠️ A model estimate of cascade risk — not a guarantee and not buy/sell. Calibration uses resolved outcomes only; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация

Warsh's commitment to lowering inflation leads to increased market confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation, potentially triggering a sell-off in long-term Treasury bonds. This could result in a sharp rise in short-term yields and a decline in long-term bond prices. Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in the US Treasury yield curve inversion (i.e., longer-term yields falling below shorter-term yields) within two wee

Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво

Warsh's commitment to lowering inflation leads to increased market confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation, potentially triggering a sell-off in long-term Treasury bonds. This could result in a sharp rise in short-term yields and a decline in long-term bond prices. Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in the US Treasury yield curve inversion (i.e., longer-term yields falling below shorter-term yields) within two wee

Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация

Warsh's commitment to lowering inflation leads to increased market confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation, potentially triggering a sell-off in long-term Treasury bonds. This could result in a sharp rise in short-term yields and a decline in long-term bond prices. Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in the US Treasury yield curve inversion (i.e., longer-term yields falling below shorter-term yields) within two wee

Horizon: 7–30 days

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