Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, Russia's decision to suspend natural gas supplies to Europe will lead to a sharp increase in European energy prices, causing widespread power outages and economic disruptions. 1. EU energy ministers meet for an emergency summit on May 31st. 2. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans to import liquefied natural gas from the United States. 3. The European Commission issues a statement warning of potential shortages. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China will result in a tentative agreement on key tariffs, maintaining current trade levels and avoiding further escalation. 1. The US Trade Representative announces a breakthrough in talks with Chinese officials. 2. Both sides a (56% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, Russia's decision to suspend natural gas supplies to Europe will lead to a sharp increase in European energy prices, causing widespread power outages and economic disruptions. 1. EU energy ministers meet for an emergency summit on May 31st. 2. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans to import liquefied natural gas from the United States. 3. The European Commission issues a statement warning of potential shortages. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China will result in a tentative agreement on key tariffs, maintaining current trade levels and avoiding further escalation. 1. The US Trade Representative announces a breakthrough in talks with Chinese officials. 2. Both sides a (32% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, Russia's decision to suspend natural gas supplies to Europe will lead to a sharp increase in European energy prices, causing widespread power outages and economic disruptions. 1. EU energy ministers meet for an emergency summit on May 31st. 2. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans to import liquefied natural gas from the United States. 3. The European Commission issues a statement warning of potential shortages. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China will result in a tentative agreement on key tariffs, maintaining current trade levels and avoiding further escalation. 1. The US Trade Representative announces a breakthrough in talks with Chinese officials. 2. Both sides a (12% model probability, not a guarantee)

Transporting Oil to China by Rail Will Not Solve Iran’s Export Headache

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators