Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: The US-Iran ceasefire extension fails to hold due to political disagreements over sanctions relief. This leads to renewed tensions in the region, causing a spike in oil prices and volatility in global markets. Investors become cautious about long-term investments as geopolitical risks increase. * A significant escalation of rhetoric from both US and Iranian governments regarding ongoing negotiations. * A sudden surge in regional conflict activity (e.g., missile tests, military exercises). * Sharp rise in oil prices above $100/barrel within a week. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The US and Iran continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to reach a comprehensive agreement, but progress is slow. The global market remains relatively stable with conti (40% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: The US-Iran ceasefire extension fails to hold due to political disagreements over sanctions relief. This leads to renewed tensions in the region, causing a spike in oil prices and volatility in global markets. Investors become cautious about long-term investments as geopolitical risks increase. * A significant escalation of rhetoric from both US and Iranian governments regarding ongoing negotiations. * A sudden surge in regional conflict activity (e.g., missile tests, military exercises). * Sharp rise in oil prices above $100/barrel within a week. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The US and Iran continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to reach a comprehensive agreement, but progress is slow. The global market remains relatively stable with conti (44% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: The US-Iran ceasefire extension fails to hold due to political disagreements over sanctions relief. This leads to renewed tensions in the region, causing a spike in oil prices and volatility in global markets. Investors become cautious about long-term investments as geopolitical risks increase. * A significant escalation of rhetoric from both US and Iranian governments regarding ongoing negotiations. * A sudden surge in regional conflict activity (e.g., missile tests, military exercises). * Sharp rise in oil prices above $100/barrel within a week. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The US and Iran continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to reach a comprehensive agreement, but progress is slow. The global market remains relatively stable with conti (16% model probability, not a guarantee)