S7/10Economic

Fed holds US interest rates steady as uncertainty over Trump's Iran deal remains

The Federal Reserve held rates between 3.5% and 3.75% after Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the central bank.

17 Jun 2026, 18:41 UTCSource: BBC BusinessOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация51% model probability

Uncertainty over Trump's Iran deal leads to increased geopolitical tensions, triggering market volatility and potentially escalating trade conflicts. This could lead to a surge in oil prices, impacting global energy markets. The US dollar might strengthen against other currencies as investors seek safe haven assets. Confirmation Indicators: Escalation of rhetoric by US and Iranian officials regarding the Iran deal; significant increase in t

Confirmation indicators

  • Escalation of rhetoric by US and Iranian officials regarding the Iran deal; significant increase in t
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво36% model probability

Uncertainty over Trump's Iran deal leads to increased geopolitical tensions, triggering market volatility and potentially escalating trade conflicts. This could lead to a surge in oil prices, impacting global energy markets. The US dollar might strengthen against other currencies as investors seek safe haven assets. Confirmation Indicators: Escalation of rhetoric by US and Iranian officials regarding the Iran deal; significant increase in t

Confirmation indicators

  • Escalation of rhetoric by US and Iranian officials regarding the Iran deal; significant increase in t
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация13% model probability

Uncertainty over Trump's Iran deal leads to increased geopolitical tensions, triggering market volatility and potentially escalating trade conflicts. This could lead to a surge in oil prices, impacting global energy markets. The US dollar might strengthen against other currencies as investors seek safe haven assets. Confirmation Indicators: Escalation of rhetoric by US and Iranian officials regarding the Iran deal; significant increase in t

Confirmation indicators

  • Escalation of rhetoric by US and Iranian officials regarding the Iran deal; significant increase in t
Horizon: 7–30 days