S7/10Economic

RBI in wait-and-watch mode despite easing West Asia risks: Sanjay Malhotra

Despite easing West Asian tensions, the RBI remains cautious, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasizing data dependency over pre-set interest rate paths. While the truce offers relief on inflation and growth, uncertainties surrounding crude oil prices and the monsoon necessitate continued vigilance. The central bank is closely monitoring potential inflation spillover effects and external challenges, maintaining a wait-and-watch approach for future policy moves.

24 Jun 2026, 08:36 UTCSource: Economic TimesOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация42% model probability

Сценарий А (Эскалация) - 50% [Цепочка эскалации: 1. Заявление о возобновлении военных действий в регионе West Asia. 2. within 14 дней: Увеличение цен на нефть и газ из-за увеличения добычи. 3. Within 28 дней: Падение индустриального производства в Индии из-за нехватки сырья.

Confirmation indicators

  • Увеличение военных действий в регионе West Asia
  • Падение индустриального производства в Индии Time horizon: 28 дней Сценарий Б (Статус
Horizon: 7–30 days