Question 1

Сценарий A: Эскалация?

Accepted Answer

France deploys troops to Ireland's shores as per the "protection agreement." Irish government requests further French military presence in Dublin for increased security. Tensions rise between France and the UK, who view this as a hostile act. The EU may impose sanctions on France for its actions. Confirmation indicators: French military ships deployed near Irish coastlines. Irish government announces significant increase in military spendi (56% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Статус-кво?

Accepted Answer

France deploys troops to Ireland's shores as per the "protection agreement." Irish government requests further French military presence in Dublin for increased security. Tensions rise between France and the UK, who view this as a hostile act. The EU may impose sanctions on France for its actions. Confirmation indicators: French military ships deployed near Irish coastlines. Irish government announces significant increase in military spendi (32% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: Деэскалация?

Accepted Answer

France deploys troops to Ireland's shores as per the "protection agreement." Irish government requests further French military presence in Dublin for increased security. Tensions rise between France and the UK, who view this as a hostile act. The EU may impose sanctions on France for its actions. Confirmation indicators: French military ships deployed near Irish coastlines. Irish government announces significant increase in military spendi (12% model probability, not a guarantee)