S9/10Military

Lebanon transfers second batch of Syrian convicts to Damascus

Lebanon transfers second batch of Syrian convicts to Damascus Lebanon transferred 128 Syrian prisoners to their home country on Wednesday, a Lebanese security source told AFP, in the second such handover under an agreement reached earlier this year. The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the prisoners were transferred to Damascus to serve the remainder of their sentences in Syria. The move follows the transfer of more than 130 Syrian detainees in March. The agreement, signed by Beirut and Damascus in February, covers nearly 300 prisoners who have spent at least 10 years in Lebanese jails. At least 260 convicts have now been transferred from Lebanon’s Roumieh prison to Syria’s Adra prison, out of a total of 356 eligible prisoners, the source told AFP. Lebanese prisons hold around 2,000 Syrian nationals, many of whom are awaiting trial. Hundreds have appeared before military courts on terrorism-related charges, including attacks against Lebanese security forces. Others have been detained over alleged links to armed groups that opposed former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, who was backed by Hezbollah during the Syrian war. The detainee issue had been a source of tension between Beirut and Damascus following Assad’s removal in December 2024. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam raised the matter during a visit to Damascus in May, where he met Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

24 Jun 2026, 12:44 UTCSource: Middle East EyeOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация85% model probability

Сценарий А (Эскалация) - 50% [Цепочка эскалации: 1. Трансферр Syrian convicts to Damascus (2026-06-24) 2. Восхитительная реакция Lebanese на это событие 3. Эскалация конфликта между Lebanon и Syria]

Confirmation indicators

  • Рост напряженности между Lebanon и Syria
  • Увеличение количества Syrian convicts, переданных в Damascus
  • Публичные заявления Lebanese и Syrian лидеров о том, что они не готовы решить проблему. Time horizon: 30 дней/4 недели. Сценарий Б (Статус
Horizon: 7–30 days